Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 1

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Kingsholm Stadium (Gloucester)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Gloucester		Castres

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.43	23	2.9
	1.44	23	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.33)	22.33 ↑ (21.33)	2.84 ↓ (3.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gloucester
63.7%

Draw
4.1%

Castres
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

4.3%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

4.1%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gloucester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gloucester's form might have worsened.

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castres's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gloucester, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castres than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castres, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Gloucester - Castres Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Gloucester will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Castres will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gloucester (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Knight C.	1. Walcker Q.
2. Blake S.	2. Zarantonello L.
3. Gotovtsev K.	3. Azar A.
4. Thomas F.	4. Ducat G.
5. Alemanno M.	5. Vanverberghe F.
6. Gwynne D.	6. Delaporte B. (C)
7. Ludlow L.	7. Cope B.
8. Trenholm W.	8. Ramototabua V.
9. Williams T. (C)	9. Fernandez J.
10. Byrne R.	10. Popelin P.
11. Thorley O.	11. Baget R.
12. Atkinson S.	12. Botitu V.
13. Llewellyn M.	13. Karawalevu V.
14. Joseph W.	14. Ambadiang C.
15. Redshaw B.	15. Chabouni T.
Substitutes
16. Innard J.	16. Durand T.
17. Rapava-Ruskin V.	17. Sokobale A.
18. Fasogbon A.	18. Chilachava L.
19. Jordan C.	19. Maravat G.
20. Basham J.	20. Papalii A.
21. Austin M.	21. Doubrere G.
22. Atkinson C.	22. Herve E.
23. Russell R.	23. Goodhue J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 14)
10', Karawalevu V. (Try),
11', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
18', Thomas F. (Try),
19', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
31', Zarantonello L. (Try),
32', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
38', Trenholm W. (Try),
39', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (20 - 0)
50', Gwynne D. 🟨,
63', Byrne R. (Penalty Goal),
66', Ambadiang C. 🟨,
69', Byrne R. (Penalty Goal),
73', Atkinson (Try),
74', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
76', Herve E. 🟨,
80+1', Atkinson (Try),
80+2', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Gloucester is considered a favorite.

We predict that Gloucester will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Gloucester won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 106:68. (average 26.5:17).

Including home matches between the teams, Gloucester won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 84:44. (average 28:14.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gloucester Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
29.11.25	Gloucester - Harlequins	26:15 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
14.11.25	Gloucester - Bath	19:17 ✺
02.11.25	Sale Sharks - Gloucester	28:31 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
25.10.25	Exeter Chiefs - Gloucester	39:12 ✺
17.10.25	Gloucester - Bristol Rugby	34:49 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWLL
- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
29.11.25	Castres - Perpignan	23:7 ✺
22.11.25	La Rochelle - Castres	17:19 ✺
01.11.25	Castres - Bordeaux Bègles	26:28 ✺
25.10.25	Clermont - Castres	63:14 ✺
18.10.25	Castres - Stade Français	29:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
05.04.24	Gloucester - Castres	30:25
19.01.24	Gloucester - Castres	35:5
European Rugby Champions Cup
19.01.19	Castres - Gloucester	24:22
14.10.18	Gloucester - Castres	19:14

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