Match Info

Premiership Rugby - Round 16

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Twickenham Stoop (London)

Referee: Carley M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Harlequins		Exeter Chiefs

	1	X	2
	3.6	26	1.3
	3.45	28	1.31
	3.5	26	1.3
	3.74	26	1.31	Watch
	3.05	21	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (3.01)	25.4 ↑ (20.5)	1.32 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 61.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harlequins
26.6%

Draw
3.6%

Exeter Chiefs
69.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

4.5%

64.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

4.5%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harlequins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Exeter Chiefs, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:35

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hobson W.	1. Sio S.
2. Riley S.	2. Norey M.
3. Delgado P.	3. Iosefa-Scott J.
4. Carr Z.	4. Jenkins D.
5. Williams E.	5. Zambonin A.
6. Cunningham-South C.	6. Hooper T.
7. Kenningham J.	7. Tshiunza C.
8. Dombrandt A.	8. Vintcent R.
9. Friday L.	9. Varney S.
10. Smith M.	10. Skinner H.
11. Murley C.	11. Ridl C.
12. Bradley B.	12. Ikitau L.
13. Northmore L.	13. Slade H.
14. Anderson C.	14. Brown-Bampoe P.
15. Benson J.	15. Woodburn O.
Substitutes
16. Musk J.	16. Dweba J.
17. Wenger B.	17. Burger E.
18. Streeter O.	18. Tchumbadze B.
19. Green J.	19. Tuima R.
20. Driscoll S.	20. Worley-Brady F.
21. Evans W.	21. Cairns T.
22. Porter W.	22. Haydon-Wood W.
23. Isgro R.	23. Feyi-Waboso I.
Coaches
. Gilmore J.	. Baxter R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 24)
6', Ridl C. (Try),
7', Slade H. (Missed Conversion),
9', Varney S. (Try),
10', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
21', Kenningham J. (Try),
22', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
25', Norey M. (Try),
25', Slade H. (Missed Conversion),
31', Ikitau L. (Try),
32', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
34', Northmore L. (Try),
35', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (27 - 0)
45', Murley C. (Try),
46', Smith M. (Missed Conversion),
52', Norey M. ↓, Dweba J. ↑,
54', Sio S. ↓, Tchumbadze B. ↑,
55', Carr Z. ↓, Streeter O. ↑,
55', Delgado P. ↓, Evans W. ↑,
55', Ikitau L. ↓, Feyi-Waboso I. ↑,
56', Brown-Bampoe P. ↓, Haydon-Wood W. ↑,
56', Norey M. ↓, Burger E. ↑,
60', Williams E. ↓, Porter W. ↑,
60', Kenningham J. ↓, Green J. ↑,
60', Friday L. ↓, Driscoll S. ↑,
60', Hobson W. ↓, Wenger B. ↑,
63', Porter W. (Try),
65', Smith M. (Missed Conversion),
66', Anderson C. ↓, Isgro R. ↑,
69', Vintcent R. ↓, Worley-Brady F. ↑,
70', Smith M. (Penalty Goal),
75', Tchumbadze B. 🟨,
77', Evans W. (Try),
77', Riley S. ↓, Musk J. ↑,
78', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
79', Hooper T. ↓, Tuima R. ↑,
80+1', Wenger B. (Try),
80+1', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership Rugby (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harlequins won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Harlequins may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Exeter is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Harlequins won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 506:561. (average 25.3:28.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Harlequins won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 191:181. (average 23.9:22.6).

Outrights of English Premiership Rugby for now

Exeter Chiefs: 4.06% Harlequins: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Exeter Chiefs	2	0	0	2	58:85	3
10	Harlequins	2	0	0	2	17:81	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harlequin FC
English Premiership Rugby
10.05.26	Newcastle Red Bulls - Harlequins	17:76 ✺
25.04.26	Harlequins - Sale Sharks	33:52 ✺
18.04.26	Bath - Harlequins	48:15 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
04.04.26	Harlequins - Sale Sharks	17:26 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
28.03.26	Bristol Rugby - Harlequins	14:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLLLW
- Exeter Chiefs
English Premiership Rugby
10.05.26	Exeter Chiefs - Bath	35:12 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
02.05.26	Ulster - Exeter Chiefs	29:12 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
26.04.26	Gloucester - Exeter Chiefs	34:31 ✺
18.04.26	Exeter Chiefs - Northampton Saints	28:35 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.04.26	Benetton Treviso - Exeter Chiefs	41:44 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
19.10.25	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	38:0
18.05.25	Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs	24:22
27.10.24	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	19:36
11.05.24	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	58:26
22.10.23	Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs	22:14
04.03.23	Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs	40:5
25.09.22	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	38:42

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