Match Info
Premiership Rugby - Round 15Date: 10 May 2026, SundayLocation: Kingston Park (Newcastle)Referee: Walbaum H. (Eng)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | Stan Sport |
 New-zealand | SKY Go NZ |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, FloRugby.com |
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Newcastle Red Bulls |
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Harlequins |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 63.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)
- The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Newcastle Red Bulls
36.1% | Draw
4.5% | Harlequins
59.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newcastle Red Bulls has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)Harlequins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Harlequins might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Red Bulls than the current prediction. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (-0.1%)Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:35 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Brocklebank A.
| 1. Hobson W.
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2. McGuigan G.
| 2. Riley S.
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3. Rewcastle M.
| 3.  Delgado P.
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4.  Hodgson J.
| 4.  Treadwell K.
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5. Baker F.
| 5. Williams E.
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6. Gordon T.
| 6. Cunningham-South C.
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7.  Christie T.
| 7.  Driscoll S.
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8. Parsons R.
| 8. Dombrandt A.
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9. Benitez Cruz S.
| 9. Friday L.
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10. Connon B.
| 10. Smith M.
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11. Obatoyinbo E.
| 11. Murley C.
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12. Arnold S.
| 12. Bradley B.
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13. Hearle A.
| 13. Northmore L.
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14. Wade C.
| 14. Anderson C.
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15. Hodge J.
| 15. Benson J.
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| Substitutes |
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. Clarke F.
| . Kenningham J.
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. Elliott J.
| 16. Staples J.
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. Fletcher O.
| 17. Wenger B.
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. Grayson E.
| 18. Streeter O.
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.  Hancock C.
| 19. Green J.
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. Healy B.
| 21. Evans W.
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.  Mafi A.
| 22. Porter W.
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. McCallum M.
| 23. Kerr S.
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| Coaches |
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. Jones S.
| .  Gilmore J.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (10 - 45)
- 2', Dombrandt A. (Try),
- 3', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
- 8', Healy B. 🟨,
- 12', Benson J. (Try),
- 13', Smith M. (Missed Conversion),
- 15', Bradley B. (Try),
- 16', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
- 20', Brocklebank A. (Try),
- 21', Connon B. (Missed Conversion),
- 23', Murley C. (Try),
- 24', Smith M. (Missed Conversion),
- 31', Riley S. (Try),
- 32', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
- 34', Smith M. (Try),
- 35', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
- 36', Christie T. ↓, Clarke F. ↑,
- 38', Hobson W. (Try),
- 39', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
- 40+2', Benson J. 🟨,
- 40+3', Hodge J. (Try),
- 40+4', Connon B. (Missed Conversion),
- 2nd Half (7 - 31)
- 41', Rewcastle M. ↓, McCallum M. ↑,
- 43', Northmore L. (Try),
- 45', Smith M. (Missed Conversion),
- 46', Gordon T. ↓, Mafi A. ↑,
- 49', Driscoll S. ↓, Kenningham J. ↑,
- 49', Dombrandt A. ↓, Evans W. ↑,
- 50', Baker F. ↓, Fletcher O. ↑,
- 53', Connon B. ↓, Grayson E. ↑,
- 53', Benson J. (Try),
- 54', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
- 54', Hobson W. ↓, Wenger B. ↑,
- 54', Riley S. ↓, Staples J. ↑,
- 54', Delgado P. ↓, Streeter O. ↑,
- 54', Friday L. ↓, Porter W. ↑,
- 54', Northmore L. ↓, Kerr S. ↑,
- 56', Benson J. (Try),
- 56', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
- 57', Bradley B. (Try),
- 58', Smith M. (Missed Conversion),
- 60', Arnold S. ↓, Elliott J. ↑,
- 60', Wade C. ↓, Beeckmans R. ↑,
- 61', Green J. ↓, Browne H. ↑,
- 62', Hodge J. (Try),
- 63', Healy B. (Conversion Goal),
- 64', Brocklebank A. ↓, Hancock C. ↑,
- 67', Staples J. (Try),
- 68', Smith M. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 10 and 9).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.Newcastle is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).Harlequins is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1). Harlequins will hold a modest advantage in this match.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 382:674. (average 19.1:33.7).Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 200:253. (average 22.2:28.1).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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