Match Info

NPC - Round 9

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: McLean Park (Napier) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	14:05	Stan Sport
New Zealand	17:05	Sky Sport 1
International	04:05	RugbyPass TV


	Hawkes Bay		Taranaki

	1	X	2
	2.01	17	1.87
	2	19	1.8	Watch
	1.93	20	1.74
	2	19	1.83	Watch
	2.02	23	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.5)	19.6 ↓ (21)	1.81 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 61.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-17)

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hawkes Bay
45.4%

Draw
4.6%

Taranaki
49.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.8%

4.3%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

4.1%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hawkes Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hawkes Bay's form might have worsened.

Taranaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Taranaki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawkes Bay than the current prediction. (+17.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hawkes Bay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Taranaki than the current prediction. (-15.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Taranaki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Hawkes Bay - Taranaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Hawkes Bay will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Taranaki will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Taranaki (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:40

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 21)
2nd Half (14 - 29)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hawkes Bay won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Hawkes Bay could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Hawkes Bay has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 325:415 (averaging 25:31.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Hawkes Bay against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 185:189 goals (averaging 30.8:31.5 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hawkes Bay
New Zealand NPC
18.09.26	Bay of Plenty - Hawkes Bay	32:17 ✺
12.09.26	Hawkes Bay - North Harbour	24:31 ✺
04.09.26	Hawkes Bay - Otago	35:24 ✺
27.08.26	Southland - Hawkes Bay	21:36 ✺
21.08.26	Hawkes Bay - Manawatu	59:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWW
- Taranaki
New Zealand NPC
20.09.26	Taranaki - Southland	55:19 ✺
10.09.26	Manawatu - Taranaki	27:25 ✺
03.09.26	Taranaki - Auckland	28:12 ✺
28.08.26	Taranaki - Canterbury	40:26 ✺
22.08.26	Bay of Plenty - Taranaki	28:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
11.10.25	Hawkes Bay - Taranaki	26:12
19.09.25	Taranaki - Hawkes Bay	38:24
20.09.24	Hawkes Bay - Taranaki	19:63
20.10.23	Taranaki - Hawkes Bay	22:19
06.08.21	Taranaki - Hawkes Bay	33:19
20.11.20	Hawkes Bay - Taranaki	59:23
14.11.20	Taranaki - Hawkes Bay	33:34

Hawkes Bay - Taranaki: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide