Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV6
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Ireland		Japan

	1	X	2
	1	30	16	Watch
				Watch
	1.01	33	16.5	Watch
	1.01	67	26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.01 ↑ (1.01)	43.33 ↑ (40)	19.5 ↓ (33)

The most likely Over/Under: 64.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-38)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ireland
93%

Draw
2.2%

Japan
4.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

94.7%

2.4%

2.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ireland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Japan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Ireland - Japan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 51:13

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Porter A.	1. Kobayashi K.
2. Kelleher R.	2. Sato K.
3. Clarkson T.	3. Shuhei T.
4. Ryan J.	4. Uluiviti R. E.
5. Beirne T.	5. Dearns W.
6. Baird R.	6. Gunter B.
7. Timoney N.	7. Shimokawa K.
8. Sweetman-Doris C.	8. Makisi F.
9. Casey C.	9. Saito N.
10. Crowley J.	10. Seung-Sin L.
11. Stockdale J.	11. Osada T.
12. Henshaw R.	12. Lawrence C.
13. Farrell T.	13. Riley D.
14. O'Brien T.	14. Ishida K.
15. Osborne J.	15. Yazaki Y.
Substitutes
16. McCarthy G.	16. Hirao S.
17. McCarthy P.	17. Iwaihara R.
18. Bealham F.	18. Tamefusa K.
19. Prendergast C.	19. Cornelsen J.
20. Conan J.	20. Leitch M.
21. Blade C.	21. Fujiwara S.
22. Prendergast S.	22. Komura S.
23. O'Brien J.	23. Hirose Y.
Coaches
. Farrell A.	. Jones E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 10)
6', Crowley J. (Penalty Goal),
17', Lawrence C. 🟨,
20', Crowley J. (Try),
21', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
30', Timoney N. (Try),
31', Crowley J. (Conversion Goal),
37', Sato K. (Try),
38', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
40+3', Stockdale J. 🟨,
40+4', Seung-Sin L. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (24 - 0)
48', Porter A. (Try),
66', McCarthy G. (Try),
72', McCarthy P. (Try),
73', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
76', O'Brien T. (Try),
77', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Ireland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ireland is the clear favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ireland won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 196:90. (average 39.2:18).

Including home matches between the teams, Ireland won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 99:36. (average 49.5:18).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ireland rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
01.11.25	Ireland - New Zealand	13:26 ✺
12.07.25	Portugal - Ireland	7:106 ✺
05.07.25	Georgia - Ireland	5:34 ✺
Six Nations
15.03.25	Italy - Ireland	17:22 ✺
08.03.25	Ireland - France	27:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWWWL
- Japan rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
01.11.25	South Africa - Japan	61:7 ✺
25.10.25	Japan - Australia	15:19 ✺
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
20.09.25	Japan - Fiji	27:33 ✺
14.09.25	Tonga - Japan	24:62 ✺
06.09.25	USA - Japan	21:47 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby Union
06.11.21	Ireland - Japan	60:5
03.07.21	Ireland - Japan	39:31
Rugby World Cup
28.09.19	Japan - Ireland	19:12
Friendly International Rugby Union
24.06.17	Japan - Ireland	13:35
17.06.17	Japan - Ireland	22:50

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