Match Info

Pacific Nations Cup - Round 3

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Japan	J sports 2
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
New-zealand	Sky Sport 6
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	RugbyPass TV


	USA		Japan

	1	X	2
	6	40	1.12
	6.13	32.91	1.13	Watch
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.07 ↑ (6)	36.46 ↓ (40)	1.13 ↑ (1.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

USA
15.2%

Draw
2.5%

Japan
82.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.4%

2.3%

82.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

USA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

USA - Japan Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. USA will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Japan will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:37

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 28)
12', Gunter B. (Try),
13', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
22', Fakatava A. (Try),
23', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
26', Dearns W. (Try),
27', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
30', Pifeleti K. (Try),
31', Hilsenbeck C. (Conversion Goal),
33', Shimokawa K. (Try),
34', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
38', Pifeleti K. (Try),
39', Hilsenbeck C. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 19)
44', Fakatava A. (Try),
62', Dearns W. (Try),
63', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
70', Ishida K. (Try),
71', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
79', Telea-Ilalio P. (Try),
80', Carty L. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Japan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Japan is the clear favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, USA won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 114:158. (average 22.8:31.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA rugby
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
22.08.25	Canada - USA	34:20 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
19.07.25	USA - England	5:40 ✺
12.07.25	USA - Spain	20:31 ✺
05.07.25	USA - Belgium	36:17 ✺
23.11.24	Spain - USA	23:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLWW
- Japan rugby
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
30.08.25	Japan - Canada	57:15 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
12.07.25	Japan - Wales	22:31 ✺
05.07.25	Japan - Wales	24:19 ✺
28.06.25	Japan - Maori All Blacks	20:53 ✺
24.11.24	England - Japan	59:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
07.09.24	Japan - USA	41:24
10.08.19	USA - Japan	20:34
Rugby World Cup
11.10.15	USA - Japan	18:28
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
24.07.15	USA - Japan	23:18
14.06.14	USA - Japan	29:37

USA - Japan: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide