Match Info

Friendly International

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Hanazono Rugby Stadium (Higashiosaka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
France	CANAL+ France
Japan	J sports 1
Mexico	Disney+
Spain	Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
World	RugbyPass TV


	Japan		Australia

	1	X	2
	6.5	34	1.11
	5.8	35	1.13
	6.08	29.2	1.14
	5.11	31.5	1.12
	6.5	31	1.12
	6.5	34	1.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.08 ↓ (6.68)	32.45 ↑ (29.22)	1.12 ↑ (1.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-15)

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan
15.1%

Draw
2.8%

Australia
82%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.8%

3.2%

83%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Australia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Japan - Australia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:38

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Okabe T.	1. Ross A.
2. Hayate E.	2. Nasser J.
3. Shuhei T.	3. Alaalatoa A.
4. Cornelsen J.	4. Canham J.
5. Dearns W.	5. Amatosero M.
6. Gunter B.	6. Valetini R.
7. Shimokawa K.	7. Mcreight F.
8. Makisi F.	8. Wilson H.
9. Saito N.	9. Lonergan R.
10. Ito R.	10. Meredith D.
11. Taira M.	11. Potter H.
12. Tua S.	12. Paisami H.
13. Riley D.	13. Sua'ali'i J.
14. Ueda K.	14. Jorgensen M.
15. Matsunaga T.	15. Wright T.
Substitutes
16. Harada M.	16. Pollard B.
17. Otsuka S.	17. Bell A.
18. Tamefusa K.	18. Tupou T.
19. Hockings H.	19. Williams J.
20. Leitch M.	20. Cale C.
21. Costley T.	21. McDermott T.
22. Uenobo S.	22. Donaldson B.
23. Yazaki Y.	23. Henry I.
Coaches
. Jones E.	. Kiss L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 14)
12', Ito R. (Try),
13', Matsunaga T. (Conversion Goal),
15', Potter H. (Try),
16', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
26', Wright T. (Try),
27', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
31', Amatosero M. 🟥,
34', Makisi F. (Try),
35', Matsunaga T. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 21)
41', Jorgensen M. (Try),
42', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
45', Ueda K. (Try),
47', Matsunaga T. (Missed Conversion),
49', Mcreight F. (Try),
50', Lonergan R. (Conversion Goal),
54', Matsunaga T. (Penalty Goal),
60', Matsunaga T. (Penalty Goal),
70', Tupou T. (Try),
71', Donaldson B. (Conversion Goal),
79', Dearns W. (Try),
80', Matsunaga T. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In this match, Australia is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Japan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 68:114. (average 22.7:38).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan rugby
Nations Championship Rugby
18.07.26	Japan - France	15:42 ✺
11.07.26	Japan - Ireland	20:36 ✺
04.07.26	Japan - Italy	27:10 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
22.11.25	Georgia - Japan	23:25 ✺
15.11.25	Wales - Japan	24:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWWL
- Australia rugby
Nations Championship Rugby
18.07.26	Australia - Italy	57:10 ✺
11.07.26	Australia - France	26:42 ✺
04.07.26	Australia - Ireland	31:33 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
22.11.25	France - Australia	48:33 ✺
15.11.25	Ireland - Australia	46:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Rugby Union
25.10.25	Japan - Australia	15:19
23.10.21	Japan - Australia	23:32
04.11.17	Japan - Australia	30:63

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