Match Info
Pacific Nations Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finalsDate: 14 September 2025, SundayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
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Australia | Stan Sport |
Canada | TSN 2, TSN+ |
Czech-republic | Nova Sport 2 |
Portugal | Sport TV2 |
Slovakia | Voyo |
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Tonga |
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Japan |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
7 |
26 |
1.1 |
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 |
6.70 |
29.50 |
1.11 |
Watch |
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Watch |
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7.61 |
43.44 |
1.12 |
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Avarage Now (Initially) |
7.1 ↓ (9.33) |
32.98 ↓ (39) |
1.11 ↑ (1.07) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 58.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-19)
- The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Tonga 13.1% | Draw 2.8% | Japan 84% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tonga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)Japan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Tonga - Japan Predictions
Users Predictions:
2 users predict this event. Tonga will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Japan will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tonga (votes: 1 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 20:39 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (19 - 21)
- 5', Lokotui F. (Try),
- 10', Hayate E. (Try),
- 11', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
- 18', Fakatava A. (Try),
- 19', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
- 26', Tameifuna B. (Try),
- 27', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 32', Dearns W. (Try),
- 33', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
- 38', Poloniati V. (Try),
- 39', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (5 - 41)
- 42', Riley D. (Try),
- 43', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
- 50', Seung-Sin L. (Penalty Goal),
- 55', Fujiwara S. (Try),
- 57', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
- 60', Seung-Sin L. (Penalty Goal),
- 63', Tapueluelu J. (Try),
- 72', Sato K. (Try),
- 73', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
- 77', Tamefusa K. (Try),
- 78', Seung-Sin L. (Conversion Goal),
- 79', (Penalty Try),
Preview
Tonga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Japan is the obvious favorite.In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tonga won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 60:121. (average 15:30.3).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;