Match Info

Top 14 - Round 6

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade de Gerland (Lyon) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Colombia	09:35	ESPN 4
France	16:35	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 5
Peru	09:35	ESPN 4
United Kingdom	15:35	FloSports app, Premier Sports Rugby
International	14:35	TOP 14 Rugby TV


	Lyon		La Rochelle

	1	X	2
	1.22	26	4.33
	1.2	27	4.5
	1.22	25.5	4.71	Watch
	1.18	33	5
	1.28	30	3.82
	1.2	27	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.37)	28.08 ↑ (20.71)	4.48 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 53.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
76%

Draw
3.3%

La Rochelle
20.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.4%

4.5%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.7%

3.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lyon's performance.

La Rochelle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and La Rochelle might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Rochelle than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lyon - La Rochelle Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Lyon will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rey J.	1. Kaddouri A.
2. Marchand G.	2. Latu S.
3. Aptsiauri I.	3. Sorin K.
4. Sanson B.	4. Boudehent P.
5. Guillard M.	5. Waqanisaravi W.
6. Deliance A. (C)	6. Timo A.
7. Saghinadze B.	7. Jegou O.
8. Shvangiradze B.	8. Haddad M.
9. Couilloud B.	9. Bouju V.
10. Berdeu L.	10. Hastoy A.
11. Wainiqolo J.	11. Leyds D. (C)
12. Millet T.	12. Daunivucu S.
13. Masi I.	13. Favre J.
14. Dumortier E.	14. Nowell J.
15. Lorre G.	15. Niniashvili D.
Substitutes
16. Chat C.	16. Lespiaucq-Brettes Q.
17. Gallo T.	17. Fraissenon N.
18. Okuya M.	18. Adelaide T.
19. Roux J.	19. Botia L.
20. Cassang C.	20. Lavault T.
21. Meliande M.	21. Loustalot C.
22. Gouzou M.	22. Jurd D.
23. Nocera M.	23. Kuntelia A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (13 - 21)
5', Hastoy A. (Try),
6', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
11', Bouju V. (Try),
12', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
15', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
22', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
29', Berdeu L. (Missed Penalty),
31', Wainiqolo J. (Try),
32', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
39', Leyds D. (Try),
39', Hastoy A. (Missed Penalty),
40+1', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (3 - 7)
49', Berdeu L. (Penalty Goal),
54', Waqanisaravi W. (Try),
55', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
69', Adelaide T. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Top 14 Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Bookmakers give the edge to Lyon for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Lyon has recorded 8 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 475:509 (averaging 23.8:25.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lyon against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 303:236 goals (averaging 27.5:21.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
5	Stade Rochelais	7	4	0	3	163:160	18
6	Lyon	7	4	0	3	224:229	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lyon OU
French Top 14
03.10.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Lyon	51:28 ✺
26.09.26	Stade Français - Lyon	31:10 ✺
19.09.26	Lyon - Section Paloise	51:25 ✺
12.09.26	Racing Métro - Lyon	31:48 ✺
05.09.26	Lyon - Clermont	40:36 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LLWWW
- La Rochelle
French Top 14
03.10.26	La Rochelle - Clermont	38:13 ✺
26.09.26	Section Paloise - La Rochelle	39:17 ✺
19.09.26	La Rochelle - Racing Métro	10:20 ✺
12.09.26	Toulon - La Rochelle	20:21 ✺
06.09.26	La Rochelle - Toulouse	30:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
31.01.26	La Rochelle - Lyon	24:44
25.10.25	Lyon - La Rochelle	19:36
15.02.25	Lyon - La Rochelle	53:17
05.10.24	La Rochelle - Lyon	43:22
17.02.24	Lyon - La Rochelle	28:17
26.08.23	La Rochelle - Lyon	35:14
04.02.23	La Rochelle - Lyon	16:20

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