Match Info

Top 14 - Round 5

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: GGL Stadium (Montpellier) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Czech Republic	21:05	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
France	21:05	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
United Kingdom	20:05	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1
International	19:05	TOP 14 Rugby TV


	Montpellier		Toulon

	1	X	2
	1.18	34	4.75
	1.17	29	5
	1.19	29.96	5.05	Watch
	1.16	27	4.75
	1.14	23	5.5
	1.17	29	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.17 ↓ (1.22)	28.66 ↑ (25.72)	5.01 ↑ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
78.5%

Draw
3.2%

Toulon
18.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

75.8%

3.6%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Montpellier - Toulon Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

Points O/U 52.5 - over (1.83) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Erdocio B.	1. Gros J.
2. Tolofua C.	2. Damond P.
3. Japaridze L.	3. Sinckler K.
4. Verhaeghe F.	4. Ribbans D.
5. Chalureau B.	5. Asevedo L.
6. Camara Y.	6. Kpoku J.
7. Becognee A.	7. Ollivon C.
8. Vunipola V. (C)	8. Mercer Z.
9. Bernadet A.	9. Serin B.
10. Miotti H.	10. Albornoz T.
11. Moustin M.	11. Ferte M.
12. Anyanwu L.	12. Fickou G. (C)
13. Vincent A.	13. Smaili M.
14. Delibes D.	14. Cowie O.
15. Banks T.	15. Jaminet M.
Substitutes
16. Akrab L.	16. Lucchesi G.
17. Welsch V.	17. Ametlla L.
18. Duguid T.	18. Mezou C.
19. Nouchi L.	19. Rebbadj S.
20. Price A.	20. Shioshvili M.
21. Hogg S.	21. Keletaona L.
22. Piccardo J.	22. Karaba J.
23. Hounkpatin W.	23. Sorhaindo O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 0)
3', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
25', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (22 - 0)
42', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
49', Tolofua C. (Try),
49', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
50', Ollivon C. 🟨,
66', Hounkpatin W. (Try),
66', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
69', Nouchi L. 🟥,
80', Hounkpatin W. (Try),

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 10th and 13th in the Pro D2 (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 0.

Toulon could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The betting markets point to Montpellier as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Montpellier has recorded 9 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 485:493 (averaging 24.3:24.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Montpellier against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 278:207 goals (averaging 27.8:20.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
4	Montpellier	7	4	0	3	183:139	18
8	RC Toulonnais	7	3	0	4	171:150	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
27.09.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	40:18 ✺
19.09.26	Montpellier - Perpignan	50:13 ✺
12.09.26	Vannes - Montpellier	12:26 ✺
05.09.26	Montpellier - Section Paloise	19:27 ✺
27.06.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	28:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWWLL
- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
26.09.26	Toulon - Vannes	28:10 ✺
19.09.26	Castres - Toulon	29:27 ✺
12.09.26	Toulon - La Rochelle	20:21 ✺
05.09.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulon	27:26 ✺
06.06.26	Castres - Toulon	38:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
25.01.26	Toulon - Montpellier	30:27
06.09.25	Montpellier - Toulon	17:27
15.02.25	Montpellier - Toulon	30:38
19.10.24	Toulon - Montpellier	30:17
23.03.24	Toulon - Montpellier	54:7
07.01.24	Montpellier - Toulon	27:17
04.02.23	Montpellier - Toulon	18:20

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