Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 4

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Franklin's Gardens (Northampton)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby, SuperSport Variety 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Malta	TSN Malta 6
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Northampton Saints		Llanelli Scarlets

	1	X	2
	1	51	26
	1.01	50	13
				Watch
	1	26	19
Avarage Now (Initially)	1 (1)	42.33 ↓ (51)	19.33 ↑ (18.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 64.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-27)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Saints
93%

Draw
2.2%

Llanelli Scarlets
4.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

93.1%

1.8%

5.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Llanelli Scarlets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Northampton Saints - Llanelli Scarlets Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -31.5 - Northampton Saints (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Northampton Saints (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 46:19

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iyogun E.	1. Mathias K.
2. Smith R.	2. Elias R.
3. Davidson T.	3. Thomas H.
4. Munga C.	4. Douglas M.
5. Mescht JJ	5. Ball J.
6. Kemeny J.	6. Plumtree T.
7. Graham S.	7. Macleod J. (C)
8. Pollock H.	8. Anderson F.
9. Mitchell A.	9. Hughes A.
10. Belleau A.	10. Costelow S.
11. Sleightholme O.	11. Murray B.
12. Dingwall F. (C)	12. Hawkins J.
13. Freeman T.	13. James E.
14. Todaro E.	14. Mee E.
15. Ramm J.	15. Davies J.
Substitutes
16. Wright C.	16. van der Merwe M.
17. Fischetti D.	17. Hepburn A.
18. Millar-Mills E.	18. O'Connor H.
19. Lockett T.	19. Taylor J.
20. Chick C.	20. Davis D.
21. McParland A.	21. Davies G.
22. Pater J.	22. Page M.
23. Hendy G.	23. Lewis T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 14)
2', Elias R. (Try),
3', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
17', Todaro E. (Try),
18', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
24', Hughes A. (Try),
25', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
34', Mathias K. 🟨,
35', Todaro E. (Try),
39', Todaro E. (Try),
40+1', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (24 - 14)
50', Sleightholme O. (Try),
51', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
58', Wright C. (Try),
59', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),
66', Costelow S. (Try),
67', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
71', Davies J. (Try),
72', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
75', Belleau A. (Penalty Goal),
80', Chick C. (Try),
80+1', Belleau A. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Northampton Saints is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Scarlets is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Scarlets may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Northampton Saints is the obvious favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Northampton Saints won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 111:38. (average 27.8:9.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton Saints won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 65:21. (average 32.5:10.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Saints
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.01.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Northampton Saints	50:28 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
03.01.26	Northampton Saints - Harlequins	66:21 ✺
27.12.25	Bath - Northampton Saints	21:41 ✺
20.12.25	Northampton Saints - Sale Sharks	47:21 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
14.12.25	Northampton Saints - Blue Bulls	50:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWWW
- Llanelli Scarlets
European Rugby Champions Cup
10.01.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Section Paloise	38:47 ✺
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	28:5 ✺
26.12.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	19:26 ✺
19.12.25	Cardiff Rugby - Llanelli Scarlets	17:21 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Llanelli Scarlets	50:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Anglo-Welsh Cup
03.02.17	Northampton Saints - Llanelli Scarlets	50:10
European Rugby Champions Cup
23.01.16	Llanelli Scarlets - Northampton Saints	10:22
14.11.15	Northampton Saints - Llanelli Scarlets	15:11
LV= Cup
07.11.14	Llanelli Scarlets - Northampton Saints	7:24

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