Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 2

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport CSN, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, URC


	Newport Gwent Dragons		Llanelli Scarlets

	1	X	2
	1.62	21	2.38
	1.57	21	2.47
	1.6	20.02	2.45	Watch
	1.65	21	2.4
	1.63	21	2.39	Watch
	1.57	21	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.76)	20.84 ↓ (21.83)	2.43 ↑ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 46.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport Gwent Dragons
57.5%

Draw
4.4%

Llanelli Scarlets
38.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.5%

4.2%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport Gwent Dragons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Llanelli Scarlets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Llanelli Scarlets might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:22

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 14)
2nd Half (26 - 12)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dragons won 1.

Scarlets may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Dragons is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Dragons has recorded 8 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 438:545 (averaging 21.9:27.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Dragons against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 289:297 goals (averaging 24.1:24.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Dragons	3	1	1	1	88:83	9
12	Scarlets	3	1	0	2	68:85	7

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Scarlets: 0.42%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport Gwent Dragons
United Rugby Championship
25.09.26	Benetton Treviso - Newport Gwent Dragons	19:19 ✺
16.05.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	35:35 ✺
09.05.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Edinburgh	15:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.26	Montpellier - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:12 ✺
United Rugby Championship
24.04.26	Zebre - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TTLLW
- Llanelli Scarlets
United Rugby Championship
26.09.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	15:21 ✺
16.05.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	35:35 ✺
09.05.26	Ospreys - Llanelli Scarlets	27:20 ✺
25.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Blue Bulls	21:23 ✺
18.04.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	24:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
16.05.26	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	35:35
01.01.26	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	28:5
19.04.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	23:31
01.01.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:15
01.06.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:15
01.01.24	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	13:12
22.04.23	Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets	31:14

Newport Gwent Dragons - Llanelli Scarlets: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide