Match Info

NEW ZEALAND: Bunnings NPC - Round 6

Date: 15 September 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Semenoff Stadium (Whangarei) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	14:35	Stan Sport
New Zealand	16:35	Sky Sport 1
South Africa	06:35	SuperSport Rugby


	Northland		Auckland

	1	X	2
	3.5	26	1.3
	3.3	26	1.35
	3.44	27.78	1.35	Watch
	3.25	26	1.33
	3.51	21	1.34
	3.3	26	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↑ (3.11)	25.46 ↑ (22.16)	1.34 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northland
27.3%

Draw
3.6%

Auckland
69.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.8%

4.2%

66%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

5.3%

82.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Auckland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northland than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auckland than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Auckland could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Northland - Auckland Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:32

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cobb R.	1. Tuipulotu T.
2. Moulds M.	2. Sanerivi M.
3. Apoua C.	3. Ta'avao A.
4. Hallam-Eames L.	4. Tuipulotu P.
5. Caird S.	5. Tualima T.
6. Rush R.	6. Clark C.
7. Matich M.	7. Choat A.
8. Parker S.	8. Segner A.
9. Milo-Harris L.	9. Hauiti-Parapara K.
10. Reihana R.	10. Plummer H.
11. Murray H.	11. Ah Wong N.
12. Latu T.	12. Heem B.
13. Evans C.	13. Taele X.
14. Rush B.	14. Tangitau C.
15. Trainor J.	15. Sullivan Z.
Substitutes
16. Asiata R.	16. Vikena S.
17. Adams J.	17. Pole S.
18. Lemisio R.	18. Renata M.
19. Craig A.	19. Beehre J.
20. Peita T.	20. Jones N.
21. Nock S.	21. Howling S.
22. Nichols Q.	22. Simpson R.
23. Salmon N.	23. Tauelangi O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 12)
18', Rush R. 🟨,
19', Hauiti-Parapara K. (Try),
20', Plummer H. (Conversion Goal),
25', Taele X. (Try),
32', Ta'avao A. 🟨,
35', Murray H. (Try),
2nd Half (12 - 12)
51', Tuipulotu P. (Try),
53', Plummer H. (Conversion Goal),
54', Heem B. (Try),
60', Nichols Q. (Try),
61', Reihana R. (Conversion Goal),
67', Rush R. (Try),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Northland won 1.

The competitors look crappy now.

Northland could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Auckland is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Northland won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 155-334.

Including matches at home between the teams Northland won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 45-93.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northland
New Zealand NPC
08.09.24	Counties Manukau - Northland	25:14 ✺
04.09.24	Waikato - Northland	32:19 ✺
30.08.24	Northland - Southland	26:31 ✺
23.08.24	Hawkes Bay - Northland	55:30 ✺
16.08.24	Northland - Manawatu	35:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLW
- Auckland Rugby
New Zealand NPC
06.09.24	Auckland - North Harbour	36:32 ✺
31.08.24	Waikato - Auckland	39:21 ✺
24.08.24	Auckland - Canterbury	21:27 ✺
16.08.24	Otago - Auckland	27:25 ✺
09.08.24	Auckland - Wellington	21:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
29.09.23	Auckland - Northland	27:26
02.09.22	Northland - Auckland	23:22
06.11.20	Auckland - Northland	24:20
15.08.19	Northland - Auckland	10:43
26.08.18	Northland - Auckland	12:28
26.08.17	Auckland - Northland	10:8
26.08.16	Auckland - Northland	37:15

Northland - Auckland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide