Match Info

NPC - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday

Location: Semenoff Stadium (Whangarei)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport


	Northland		Tasman

	1	X	2
	1.49	26	2.6
	1.4	19	2.8	Watch
	1.44	23	2.65
	1.45	19	2.91
	1.47	25	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.72)	22.4 ↑ (22)	2.75 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-29)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northland
62.8%

Draw
4.1%

Tasman
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

4.2%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

4.1%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Northland's performance.

Tasman has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tasman might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northland than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Northland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tasman than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tasman could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Northland - Tasman Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Northland (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 43:14

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 14)
2nd Half (14 - 7)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northland won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Tasman could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Northland holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Northland in today's match, at odds of 1.48.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Northland has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 195:327 (averaging 19.5:32.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Northland against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 108:119 goals (averaging 21.6:23.8 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northland
New Zealand NPC
02.10.26	Southland - Northland	14:28 ✺
25.09.26	Northland - Counties Manukau	19:22 ✺
19.09.26	Wellington - Northland	28:52 ✺
12.09.26	Northland - Waikato	34:17 ✺
06.09.26	North Harbour - Northland	57:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWWL
- Tasman Rugby
New Zealand NPC
03.10.26	Waikato - Tasman	33:50 ✺
24.09.26	Tasman - Bay of Plenty	45:26 ✺
18.09.26	Tasman - Auckland	22:24 ✺
11.09.26	Otago - Tasman	55:33 ✺
05.09.26	Tasman - Wellington	42:28 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
30.08.26	Northland - Tasman	20:10
15.08.25	Northland - Tasman	14:28
19.08.23	Northland - Tasman	32:5
23.09.22	Tasman - Northland	52:17
18.09.21	Northland - Tasman	29:48
18.09.20	Tasman - Northland	54:21
05.10.19	Tasman - Northland	52:6

Northland - Tasman: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide