Match Info

NPC - Round 4

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Forsyth Barr Stadium (Dunedin) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	15:05	Stan Sport
Mexico	23:05	Disney+
New Zealand	17:05	Sky Sport 1
International	05:05	RugbyPass TV


	Otago		Wellington

	1	X	2
	1.14	26	5
	1.15	24	5.6
	1.09	32.95	7.28	Watch
	1.12	50	6.25
	1.17	21	5.55	Watch
	1.09	40	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.13 ↑ (1.1)	32.33 ↑ (29.93)	6.11 ↓ (7.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 65.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-18)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Otago
82%

Draw
2.9%

Wellington
15.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

84.3%

3.1%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Otago has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Wellington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Otago - Wellington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 42:24

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 8)
2nd Half (35 - 14)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Otago won 2.

Wellington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Otago is the obvious favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Otago won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 321:422. (average 26.8:35.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Otago won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 99:130. (average 24.8:32.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Otago
New Zealand NPC
15.08.26	Manawatu - Otago	27:29 ✺
08.08.26	Otago - Canterbury	15:19 ✺
01.08.26	Southland - Otago	14:41 ✺
24.10.25	Canterbury - Otago	36:28 ✺
17.10.25	Otago - Bay of Plenty	41:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLWLW
- Wellington Rugby
New Zealand NPC
13.08.26	Wellington - North Harbour	7:47 ✺
07.08.26	Auckland - Wellington	34:31 ✺
02.08.26	Wellington - Hawkes Bay	33:52 ✺
03.10.25	Wellington - Bay of Plenty	26:33 ✺
26.09.25	Taranaki - Wellington	39:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
16.08.25	Wellington - Otago	41:46
11.09.24	Otago - Wellington	28:32
12.08.23	Otago - Wellington	5:28
10.09.22	Wellington - Otago	32:26
09.10.20	Wellington - Otago	34:35
14.09.19	Wellington - Otago	54:24
18.08.18	Wellington - Otago	34:16

Otago - Wellington: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide