Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 24

Date: 26 March 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ Sport


	Provence Rugby		Colomiers

	1	X	2
	1.4	23	3.1
	1.4	24	3
	1.43	22.52	3.02	Watch
	1.4	23	3
	1.37	18	3.16
	1.3	17	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.33)	21.25 ↓ (24.24)	3.17 ↓ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Provence Rugby
66.6%

Draw
4.3%

Colomiers
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

3.8%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

3.1%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Provence Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Colomiers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provence Rugby than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Provence Rugby that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colomiers than the current prediction. (+3%)

Provence Rugby - Colomiers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:23

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (15 - 22)
2nd Half (5 - 3)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Provence Rugby won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Provence Rugby is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Provence Rugby will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Provence Rugby won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 345:390. (average 20.3:22.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Provence Rugby won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 173:164. (average 21.6:20.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Provence Rugby	5	5	0	0	160:108	21
13	Colomiers	5	1	0	4	151:156	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Provence Rugby
French Pro D2
06.03.26	Biarritz - Provence Rugby	26:18 ✺
27.02.26	Provence Rugby - Agen	22:24 ✺
20.02.26	US Dax - Provence Rugby	33:21 ✺
13.02.26	Provence Rugby - Oyonnax Rugby	35:34 ✺
30.01.26	Carcassonne - Provence Rugby	19:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLLWW
- Colomiers
French Pro D2
05.03.26	Colomiers - Brive	10:23 ✺
27.02.26	Vannes - Colomiers	40:12 ✺
20.02.26	Colomiers - Béziers	18:0 ✺
12.02.26	Nevers - Colomiers	27:39 ✺
30.01.26	Colomiers - SA XV Charente	42:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
07.11.25	Colomiers - Provence Rugby	10:12
07.03.25	Provence Rugby - Colomiers	24:23
05.12.24	Colomiers - Provence Rugby	31:30
01.03.24	Provence Rugby - Colomiers	27:18
26.09.23	Colomiers - Provence Rugby	19:19
23.03.23	Provence Rugby - Colomiers	25:18
09.09.22	Colomiers - Provence Rugby	17:16

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