Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 3

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: StoneX Stadium (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV7
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Saracens		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	4.75	26	1.2
	5	29	1.14
	4	27	1.24
	4.33	26	1.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.52 ↓ (4.68)	27 ↑ (21.67)	1.2 ↓ (1.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saracens
20.3%

Draw
3.4%

Toulouse
76.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.7%

4.2%

76.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saracens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Saracens - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Saracens will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Toulouse will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Saracens (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 22:33

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mawi E.	1. Ainuu D.
2. George J.	2. Marchand J.
3. Street M.	3. Aldegheri D.
4. Itoje M. (C)	4. Flament T.
5. Tizard H.	5. Meafou E.
6. McFarland T.	6. Willis J.
7. Gonzalez J.	7. Jelonch A.
8. Willis T.	8. Roumat A.
9. van Zyl I.	9. Dupont A. (C)
10. Burke F.	10. Kinghorn B.
11. Segun R.	11. Lebel M.
12. Hartley O.	12. Chocobares S.
13. Lozowski A.	13. Costes P.
14. Caluori N.	14. Delibes D.
15. Daly E.	15. Ramos T.
Substitutes
16. Hadfield J.	16. Mauvaka P.
17. Carre R.	17. Bertrand B.
18. Riccioni M.	18. Mallez P.
19. Christie A.	19. Brennan J.
20. Earl B.	20. Elias E.
21. Bracken C.	21. Banos L.
22. Farrell O.	22. Graou P.
23. Malins M.	23. Vigneres L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 7)
18', Kinghorn B. (Try),
19', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
29', Segun R. (Try),
35', Segun R. (Try),
35', Burke F. (Conversion Goal),
39', Willis T. (Try),
2nd Half (3 - 7)
46', Lebel M. (Try),
46', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
61', Farrell O. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Saracens may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Toulouse is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Saracens won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 87:62. (average 21.8:15.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Saracens won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 48:24. (average 24:12).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Saracens FC
English Premiership Rugby
04.01.26	Leicester Tigers - Saracens	36:28 ✺
27.12.25	Gloucester - Saracens	21:30 ✺
20.12.25	Saracens - Exeter Chiefs	24:30 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Sharks - Saracens	28:23 ✺
06.12.25	Saracens - Clermont	47:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLW
- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
03.01.26	Perpignan - Toulouse	30:27 ✺
28.12.25	Toulouse - La Rochelle	60:14 ✺
20.12.25	Lyon - Toulouse	19:41 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Glasgow Warriors - Toulouse	28:21 ✺
07.12.25	Toulouse - Sharks	56:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
23.01.16	Toulouse - Saracens	17:28
14.11.15	Saracens - Toulouse	32:7
Heineken Cup
12.01.14	Toulouse - Saracens	21:11
18.10.13	Saracens - Toulouse	16:17

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