Match Info

Top 14 - Round 12

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade de Gerland (Lyon)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Lyon		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.7	21	1.5
	2.55	23	1.53
	2.67	21.02	1.56	Watch
	2.63	21	1.53
	2.65	17	1.51
	2.75	21	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.64)	20.67 ↑ (18.48)	1.53 ↓ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
34.8%

Draw
4.5%

Toulouse
60.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

5.1%

59.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

5.4%

56.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Lyon - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:29

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moukoro T.	1. Bertrand B.
2. Chat C.	2. Marchand J.
3. Aptsiauri I.	3. Merkler J.
4. William T.	4. Brennan J.
5. Geraci K.	5. Verge C.
6. Cretin D.	6. Willis J.
7. Allen L.	7. Castro-Ferreira M.
8. Simmonds S.	8. Roumat A.
9. Couilloud B.	9. Graou P.
10. Berdeu L.	10. Kinghorn B.
11. Dumortier E.	11. Delibes D.
12. Millet T.	12. Chocobares S.
13. Maraku J.	13. Costes P.
14. Wainiqolo J.	14. Pouzelgues C.
15. Meliande M.	15. Ramos T.
Substitutes
16. Marchand G.	16. Lacombre T.
17. Rey J.	17. Mallez P.
18. Roux J.	18. Jelonch A.
19. Saghinadze B.	19. Banos L.
20. Cassang C.	20. Dupont A.
21. Ioane M.	21. Vigneres L.
22. Masi I.	22. Epee N.
23. Gomes Sa C.	23. Aldegheri D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 17)
5', Ramos T. (Penalty Goal),
10', Verge C. (Try),
10', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
20', Chat C. (Try),
20', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
28', Cretin D. 🟨,
38', Graou P. (Try),
38', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (12 - 24)
46', Moukoro T. (Try),
46', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
48', Wainiqolo J. (Try),
55', Brennan J. (Try),
55', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
63', Roumat A. (Try),
73', Costes P. (Try),
73', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
80+2', Vigneres L. (Try),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 1.

Lyon is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toulouse is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Toulouse will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 413:508. (average 20.7:25.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 227:177. (average 22.7:17.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lyon OU
Challenge Cup Rugby
14.12.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Lyon	23:21 ✺
06.12.25	Lyon - Newcastle Red Bulls	14:23 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Lyon	22:20 ✺
22.11.25	Lyon - Clermont	43:24 ✺
01.11.25	Toulon - Lyon	54:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL
- Stade Toulousain
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Glasgow Warriors - Toulouse	28:21 ✺
07.12.25	Toulouse - Sharks	56:19 ✺
French Top 14
29.11.25	Toulouse - Racing Métro	48:24 ✺
22.11.25	Montauban - Toulouse	7:49 ✺
01.11.25	Toulouse - Stade Français	29:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
01.06.25	Toulouse - Lyon	43:3
22.12.24	Lyon - Toulouse	17:17
08.06.24	Lyon - Toulouse	40:28
06.01.24	Toulouse - Lyon	45:0
16.04.23	Toulouse - Lyon	36:31
27.11.22	Lyon - Toulouse	21:14
27.03.22	Toulouse - Lyon	27:19

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