Match Info

Bunnings NPC

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Yarrow Stadium (New Plymouth) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	17:10	Stan Sport


	Taranaki		Hawkes Bay

	1	X	2
	1.41	22	3
	1.42	24.17	2.97	Watch
	1.48	26	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.78)	24.06 ↓ (26)	2.92 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Taranaki
64.5%

Draw
3.9%

Hawkes Bay
31.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52%

3.6%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Taranaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Taranaki's performance.

Hawkes Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hawkes Bay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Taranaki than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Taranaki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hawkes Bay than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hawkes Bay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Taranaki - Hawkes Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:26

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 5)
2nd Half (31 - 19)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Taranaki won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Taranaki could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Taranaki will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Taranaki won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 365:275. (average 33.2:25).

Including home matches between the teams, Taranaki won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 188:116. (average 31.3:19.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Taranaki
New Zealand NPC
13.09.25	Otago - Taranaki	28:26 ✺
06.09.25	Taranaki - Bay of Plenty	17:43 ✺
29.08.25	Counties Manukau - Taranaki	22:43 ✺
22.08.25	Taranaki - Waikato	22:23 ✺
16.08.25	Auckland - Taranaki	8:50 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWLW
- Hawkes Bay
New Zealand NPC
12.09.25	Bay of Plenty - Hawkes Bay	21:24 ✺
05.09.25	Hawkes Bay - Wellington	45:19 ✺
30.08.25	Northland - Hawkes Bay	27:21 ✺
22.08.25	Hawkes Bay - Canterbury	7:26 ✺
16.08.25	Hawkes Bay - North Harbour	36:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
20.09.24	Hawkes Bay - Taranaki	19:63
20.10.23	Taranaki - Hawkes Bay	22:19
06.08.21	Taranaki - Hawkes Bay	33:19
20.11.20	Hawkes Bay - Taranaki	59:23
14.11.20	Taranaki - Hawkes Bay	33:34
20.09.19	Hawkes Bay - Taranaki	35:17
23.09.17	Hawkes Bay - Taranaki	17:48

Taranaki - Hawkes Bay: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide