Match Info

Pacific Nations Cup - Round 1

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
New-zealand	Sky Sport 2
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Tonga		Samoa

	1	X	2
	2.8	23	1.44
	2.75	25	1.45
	2.78	22.96	1.49	Watch
	3	26	1.36
	2.6	20	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↓ (3)	23.39 ↑ (23)	1.44 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tonga
32.7%

Draw
3.9%

Samoa
63.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

3.9%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tonga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Samoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Tonga - Samoa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:28

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 6)
7', Moala S. (Try),
8', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
19', Pellegrini P. (Penalty Goal),
25', Takulua T. (Try),
26', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
32', Alatimu A. M. (Penalty Goal),
36', Pellegrini P. (Penalty Goal),
39', Alatimu A. M. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (10 - 10)
57', Tuitama T. (Try),
67', Pellegrini P. (Penalty Goal),
76', Moli S. (Try),
77', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
80', Nanai M. (Try),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tonga won 0.

In this match, Samoa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Tonga won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 160:270. (average 17.8:30).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tonga rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
24.11.24	Georgia - Tonga	22:7 ✺
16.11.24	USA - Tonga	36:17 ✺
09.11.24	Romania - Tonga	25:15 ✺
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
14.09.24	Tonga - Canada	30:17 ✺
05.09.24	Tonga - Fiji	19:50 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLWL
- Samoa rugby
Friendly International Rugby Union
18.07.25	Samoa - Scotland	12:41 ✺
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
21.09.24	USA - Samoa	13:18 ✺
15.09.24	Samoa - Japan	27:49 ✺
30.08.24	Samoa - Tonga	43:17 ✺
23.08.24	Fiji - Samoa	42:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
30.08.24	Samoa - Tonga	43:17
04.08.23	Samoa - Tonga	34:9
08.07.22	Samoa - Tonga	34:18
Friendly International Rugby Union
10.07.21	Samoa - Tonga	42:13
Pacific Nations Cup Rugby Union
26.07.19	Tonga - Samoa	17:25
15.06.18	Tonga - Samoa	28:18
30.06.17	Tonga - Samoa	30:26

Tonga - Samoa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide