Match Info
Pacific Nations Cup - Play Offs - 3rd placeDate: 20 September 2025, SaturdayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
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Africa | SuperSport Rugby |
Czech-republic | Nova Sport 2 |
Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 5 |
New-zealand | Sky Sport 1 |
Nigeria | SuperSport Rugby |
Portugal | Sport TV2 |
South-africa | SuperSport Rugby |
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 |
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Tonga |
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Canada |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.12 |
35 |
5.8 |
|
 |
1.05 |
41.65 |
9.62 |
Watch |
 |
1.12 |
30 |
5.2 |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.1 ↓ (1.19) |
35.55 ↑ (35) |
6.87 ↑ (4.9) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 56.00
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-14)
- The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Tonga 84% | Draw 2.6% | Canada 13.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tonga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tonga's performance.Canada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Canada might be facing challenges that affect their performance.Tonga - Canada Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:21 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (14 - 7)
- 11', Afungia T. (Try),
- 12', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 34', Pellegrini P. (Try),
- 35', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 39', Oworu M. (Try),
- 39', Nelson P. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (21 - 17)
- 45', Gallagher B. (Try),
- 46', Nelson P. (Conversion Goal),
- 57', Fisiihoi S. (Try),
- 58', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 60', Nelson P. (Penalty Goal),
- 62', Pellegrini P. (Try),
- 63', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
- 68', Nelson P. (Try),
- 68', Nelson P. (Conversion Goal),
- 71', Pellegrini P. (Try),
- 72', Pellegrini P. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In this match, Tonga is the undeniable favorite.In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tonga won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 154:106. (average 30.8:21.2).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;