Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 1

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports MAX 9


	Ulster		Racing Métro

	1	X	2
	1.02	51	13
	1.02	45	11
	1.02	41	12
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↓ (1.04)	45.67 ↑ (41.67)	12 ↑ (10)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-21)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulster
90.3%

Draw
2%

Racing Métro
7.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88.6%

2.2%

9.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulster has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Racing Métro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Ulster - Racing Métro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:14

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 7)
2nd Half (47 - 0)

Preview

Racing Métro has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ulster may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ulster is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ulster won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 69:81. (average 23:27).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulster won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 57:37. (average 28.5:18.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
28.11.25	Ulster - Benetton Treviso	47:13 ✺
25.10.25	Lions - Ulster	49:31 ✺
18.10.25	Sharks - Ulster	26:34 ✺
11.10.25	Ulster - Blue Bulls	28:7 ✺
26.09.25	Ulster - Newport Gwent Dragons	42:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WLWWW
- Racing Métro 92
French Top 14
29.11.25	Toulouse - Racing Métro	48:24 ✺
22.11.25	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	47:27 ✺
02.11.25	La Rochelle - Racing Métro	33:6 ✺
25.10.25	Racing Métro - Section Paloise	15:10 ✺
19.10.25	Toulon - Racing Métro	38:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
16.12.23	Ulster - Racing Métro	31:15
12.01.19	Ulster - Racing Métro	26:22
20.10.18	Racing Métro - Ulster	44:12

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