Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Distrital do Jardim Inamar (Sao Paulo)


	Água Santa		Ceilândia

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	2.95
	2.12	3.15	3.05
	2.31	2.86	3.3
	2.27	3.07	3.18	Watch
	2.17	3.2	3.08
	1.85	3.36	3.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.81)	3.11 ↓ (3.5)	3.23 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Água Santa
42.4%

Draw
29.4%

Ceilândia
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

25.9%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

26.7%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Água Santa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Água Santa's form might have worsened.

Ceilândia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Água Santa than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Água Santa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceilândia than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ceilândia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Água Santa - Ceilândia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 0 - 1, Romarinho ⚽,
73', 1 - 1, Joao Guilherme ⚽,
82', 🟥,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, Água Santa has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ceilândia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Água Santa could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Água Santa
Brazilian Serie D
26.07.25	Pouso Alegre - Água Santa	0:2 ✺
19.07.25	Água Santa - Nova Iguaçu	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	Portuguesa - Água Santa	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Água Santa - Porto Vitória	0:0 ✺
28.06.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Água Santa	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLTL
- Ceilândia
Brazilian Serie D
26.07.25	Ceilândia - Goianésia	2:0 ✺
20.07.25	Goiânia - Ceilândia	2:2 ✺
13.07.25	Capital CF Ltda - Ceilândia	2:2 ✺
05.07.25	Ceilândia - Luverdense	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Ceilândia - Mixto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTTWW

Água Santa - Ceilândia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide