Match Info

CROATIA: HNL - Round 26

Date: 15 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Šubićevac (Šibenik)

Referee: Pejin T. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go


	Šibenik		Istra 1961

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.25
	3.3	3	2.25
	3.3	3	2.32
	3.42	2.85	2.42
	3.36	2.9	2.37	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.4
	3.23	3.12	2.34	Watch
	3.3	3	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.94)	2.96 ↑ (2.77)	2.33 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Šibenik
28.5%

Draw
31.5%

Istra 1961
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

36.1%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Šibenik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Istra 1961 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Istra 1961's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Šibenik than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Šibenik, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Istra 1961, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	58.3%	33.3%

Šibenik - Istra 1961 Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Šibenik will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Istra 1961 will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Filipovic I. (G) 5. Cvek L. 15. Agyemang M. 44. Zuta L. 43. Grzan S. 8. Bakic O. 36. Kavelj A. 32. Durakovic E. 88. Prekodravac M. 27. Kulusic L. 18. Santini I. (C)	21. Majkic L. (C) 23. Valincic M. 5. Koski V. 4. Maresic D. 97. Kadusic A. 27. Calusic I. 30. Radosevic J. 8. Mauric A. 11. Lisica M. 70. Lawal S. 57. Fucak K.
Substitutes
9. Bozic I. 1. Djakovic A. (G) 22. Kolega T. 17. Koscevic Z. 11. Laca I. 3. Liu A. 7. Majic J. 25. Mohorovic P. (G) 55. Peric S. 24. Puncec R. 28. Roca I. 30. Zdunic B.	18. Ayuma I. I. 16. Bogdan L. 22. Djuric D. 29. Gagua G. 9. Jaganjac H. 12. Jursic M. (G) 1. Kolic F. (G) 38. Kumar R. 36. Ramic I. 6. Robertsson L. H.
Coaches
Vidovic R.	Garcia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Kavelj A. ⚽, Durakovic E. (A),
24', Santini I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kulusic L. ↓, Bozic I. ↑,
57', Agyemang M. ↓, Peric S. ↑,
58', Radosevic J. ↓, Djuric D. ↑,
62', Bozic I. 🟨,
67', Lawal S. ↓, Gagua G. ↑,
67', Fucak K. ↓, Jaganjac H. ↑,
69', Santini I. ↓, Laca I. ↑,
69', Prekodravac M. ↓, Roca I. ↑,
83', Durakovic E. ↓, Kolega T. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Prva NL and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Šibenik won 0.

Šibenik has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Istra 1961 is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Šibenik could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Istra 1961 will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Šibenik: Nizic Z. (Injury) Pozo I. (Red Card)

There will not play in Istra 1961: Blagojevic S. (Injury) Heister M. (Yellow Cards)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Šibenik won 6 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 21:27 (average 1.1:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Šibenik won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:5 (average 0.9:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HNK Šibenik
Croatian HNL
07.03.25	Rijeka - Šibenik	1:1 ✺
02.03.25	Šibenik - Varaždin	0:2 ✺
23.02.25	Gorica - Šibenik	1:0 ✺
14.02.25	Šibenik - Lokomotiva Zagreb	1:2 ✺
07.02.25	Dinamo Zagreb - Šibenik	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLLLL
- Istra 1961
Croatian HNL
08.03.25	Varaždin - Istra 1961	0:0 ✺
Croatian Cup
04.03.25	Istra 1961 - Lokomotiva Zagreb	3:0 ✺
Croatian HNL
28.02.25	Istra 1961 - Lokomotiva Zagreb	3:2 ✺
23.02.25	Slaven Belupo - Istra 1961	0:0 ✺
15.02.25	Istra 1961 - Hajduk Split	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
14.12.24	Istra 1961 - Šibenik	3:3
27.09.24	Šibenik - Istra 1961	0:0
29.04.23	Istra 1961 - Šibenik	3:0
24.02.23	Šibenik - Istra 1961	0:0
23.10.22	Istra 1961 - Šibenik	0:0
12.08.22	Šibenik - Istra 1961	0:0
07.05.22	Istra 1961 - Šibenik	1:2

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