Match Info

HNL - Round 11

Date: 26 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Aldo Drosina (Pula) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kolaric P. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Croatia	18:00	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go


	Istra 1961		Hajduk Split

	1	X	2
	4.10	3.60	1.67
	4.50	4.10	1.65
	4.50	3.55	1.61
	4.79	4.00	1.73
	4.21	4.09	1.72	Watch
	4.70	3.75	1.69
	4.60	3.84	1.74	Watch
	4.40	3.80	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.48 ↑ (4.01)	3.84 ↑ (3.71)	1.68 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Istra 1961
20.7%

Draw
24.2%

Hajduk Split
55.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23%

24.8%

52.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

24.2%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Istra 1961 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Hajduk Split has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hajduk Split than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Istra 1961 - Hajduk Split Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hajduk (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Hajduk Split (1.67) (votes: 85%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Hajduk Split will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kolic F. (C) 44. Hrvatin R. 4. Kumar R. 3. Nasraoui M. 13. Sepic N. 22. Frederiksen E. 5. Hodzic D. 25. Albarracin G. 7. Rozic V. 94. Jaganjac H. 9. Isaac	33. Silic T. (G) 22. Acapandie M. 6. Hadzikadunic D. 15. Maresic D. 32. Hrgovic S. 20. del Moral A. 8. Fayad K. 7. Sanyang A. 9. de Almeida D. 23. Soticek M. 11. Sego M. (C)
Substitutes
20. Ahmeti D. 39. Brajkovic T. 27. Celija D. 11. Gorican S. 34. Kablar M. 97. Kadusic A. 66. Momoh M. 40. Paus-Kunst J. (G) 30. Skafar Zuzic N. 23. Ukich S.	19. Brruti E. 18. Dendoncker L. 99. Fesyuk D. (G) 3. Gabric R. 26. Huram A. 10. Livaja M. 77. Martin C. 17. Melnjak D. 14. Raci R. 44. Stipica D. (G) 16. Sutalo A. 5. Van Hoorenbeeck A.
Coaches
Cabello J.	Garcia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Fayad K. ⚽, Hadzikadunic D. (A),
13', Hadzikadunic D. 🟨,
30', Hodzic D. 🟨,
39', Jaganjac H. 🟨,
39', Sego M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', Albarracin G. 🟨,
54', 0 - 2, Sego M. ⚽, Fayad K. (A),
60', Rozic V. ↓, Skafar Zuzic N. ↑,
60', Hodzic D. ↓, Kablar M. ↑,
60', Isaac ↓, Ahmeti D. ↑,
66', 1 - 2, Jaganjac H. ⚽, Frederiksen E. (A),
69', Maresic D. ↓, Van Hoorenbeeck A. ↑,
70', Kablar M. 🟨,
76', Sanyang A. ↓, Martin C. ↑,
76', Acapandie M. ↓, Gabric R. ↑,
81', 2 - 2, Frederiksen E. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Soticek M. ↓, Huram A. ↑,
83', de Almeida D. ↓, Dendoncker L. ↑,
89', Albarracin G. ↓, Momoh M. ↑,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 7th and 1st in the Promotion - Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 1.

In recent outings, Istra 1961 has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Hajduk shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Hajduk may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Hajduk for this game.

Confirmed absences for Istra 1961: Doumbia D. (Inactive) Kadusic A. (Inactive) Mauric A. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Hajduk: Brajkovic R. (Knee Injury) Hodak L. (Inactive) Ivusic I. (Illness) Pajaziti A. (Yellow Cards).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Istra 1961 has recorded 4 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:32 (averaging 1.1:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Istra 1961 against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:14 goals (averaging 0.9:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	11	7	2	2	21:11	10	23
6	Istra 1961	12	4	4	4	21:18	3	16

Last Results with these Odds

Istra 1961 - the odds 4.01 are the expected chance of winning is 22.96%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Hajduk Split - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 52.24%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Istra 1961
Croatian HNL
17.10.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Istra 1961	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Osijek - Istra 1961	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	Istra 1961 - Gorica	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Istra 1961 - Rudeš	3:2 ✺
Croatian Cup
08.09.26	Zagorec Krapina - Istra 1961	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWLWW
- Hajduk Split
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.10.26	Thun - Hajduk Split	0:1 ✺
Croatian HNL
18.10.26	Hajduk Split - Varaždin	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.10.26	Hajduk Split - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Croatian HNL
10.10.26	Hajduk Split - Dinamo Zagreb	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Rijeka - Hajduk Split	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
09.08.26	Hajduk Split - Istra 1961	2:2
07.04.26	Istra 1961 - Hajduk Split	1:3
25.01.26	Hajduk Split - Istra 1961	1:2
19.10.25	Istra 1961 - Hajduk Split	0:3
03.08.25	Hajduk Split - Istra 1961	2:1
23.04.25	Hajduk Split - Istra 1961	0:1
15.02.25	Istra 1961 - Hajduk Split	1:1

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