Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Referee: Ilioski V. (Mkd)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Georgia	1TV
Germany	Laola1
Lithuania	TV3
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Žalgiris		Dinamo Tbilisi

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.7	3.5	Watch
	1.93	3.50	3.40
	1.72	3.7	3.95
	1.78	3.85	4.13
	1.93	3.82	3.54	Watch
	1.72	3.8	4
	1.9	3.91	3.7	Watch
	1.82	3.75	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.09)	3.75 ↑ (3.45)	3.76 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žalgiris
50.7%

Draw
24.7%

Dinamo Tbilisi
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

27.3%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

27.1%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Žalgiris's performance.

Dinamo Tbilisi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Žalgiris that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dinamo Tbilisi than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.1%	27.8%	11.1%

Žalgiris - Dinamo Tbilisi Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Žalgiris will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Dinamo Tbilisi will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Žalgiris: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.58) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Sarkauskas V. (G) 18. Sesplaukis D. 4. Koy Lupano D. 15. Bosancic P. 21. Franke D. 20. Lytvynenko I. 77. Kendysh Y. (C) 10. Golubickas P. 19. Bilenkyi S. 70. Teixeira B. 11. Petkovic N.	1. Loria G. (C) 17. Psaltis P. 27. Kurdic N. 3. Kalandadze A. 6. Leo Santos 24. Osei B. 22. Ninua N. 39. Kakashvili K. 14. Do Couto M. 12. Bah A. 18. Kvaratskhelia T.
Substitutes
8. Antal L. 29. Bicka K. 6. Capan M. 9. Jarusevicius G. 23. Mamatsashvili S. 7. Mihajlovic N. 1. Olses C. (G) 14. Setkus M. 5. Turda G. 13. Upstas K. 27. Vareika M. 22. Verbickas O.	28. Aleksidze R. 29. Danelia R. 40. Gagvishvili M. (G) 34. Gbomadu M. 26. Gogua G. 33. Houri L. 21. Kvartskhava D. 37. Makatsaria M. (G) 16. Tkalia N. 32. Tsikolia L. 11. Vatsadze M.
Coaches
Skerla A.	Ketsbaia T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Kalandadze A. 🟨,
9', Petkovic N. (Penalty Awarded),
22', Psaltis P. ↓, Houri L. ↑,
25', 1 - 0, Bilenkyi S. ⚽, Golubickas P. (A),
40', 1 - 1, Leo Santos ⚽,
41', Leo Santos 🟨,
2nd Half (6 - 1)
56', Koy Lupano D. 🟨,
59', 2 - 1, Petkovic N. ⚽, Franke D. (A),
60', Kvaratskhelia T. ↓, Tkalia N. ↑,
61', 3 - 1, Teixeira B. ⚽, Petkovic N. (A),
62', Bosancic P. 🟨,
68', Do Couto M. 🟨,
70', Kakashvili K. ↓, Vatsadze M. ↑,
72', 3 - 2, Vatsadze M. ⚽, Kurdic N. (A),
74', 4 - 2, Petkovic N. ⚽, Sesplaukis D. (A),
74', Loria G. 🟨,
76', Bah A. 🟨,
82', 5 - 2, Bilenkyi S. ⚽, Petkovic N. (A),
84', Golubickas P. ↓, Mihajlovic N. ↑,
88', 6 - 2, Mihajlovic N. ⚽, Bilenkyi S. (A),
90', 7 - 2, Bilenkyi S. ⚽, Teixeira B. (A),
90+1', Kendysh Y. 🟨,
90+3', Franke D. ↓, Mamatsashvili S. ↑,
90+3', Sesplaukis D. ↓, Upstas K. ↑,
90+3', Petkovic N. ↓, Capan M. ↑,
90+7', Vatsadze M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-3.

Žalgiris is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dinamo Tbilisi's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Dinamo Tbilisi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Žalgiris is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Žalgiris won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Žalgiris Vilnius
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
27.07.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Žalgiris	3:0 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
19.07.26	Žalgiris - Transinvest	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Žalgiris - Petrovac	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Petrovac - Žalgiris	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWWW
- Dinamo Tbilisi
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Žalgiris	3:0 ✺
16.07.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Mondorf-les-Bains	1:1 ET ✺
09.07.26	Mondorf-les-Bains - Dinamo Tbilisi	1:2 ✺
Georgian Super Cup
01.07.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Dila Gori	1:0 penalties ✺
27.06.26	Iberia 1999 - Dinamo Tbilisi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Žalgiris	3:0

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