Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 24

Date: 27 July 2026, Monday

Location: Raudondvario stadionas (Raudondvario)

Referee: Simenas D. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Hegelmann Litauen		Žalgiris

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.90	3.50	1.73
	3.60	3.35	1.77
	4.14	3.61	1.86
	4.22	3.7	1.78	Watch
	4.05	3.55	1.81
	4.23	3.50	1.73	Watch
	4.00	3.40	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↑ (3.78)	3.52 ↑ (3.45)	1.77 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hegelmann Litauen
22.7%

Draw
25.9%

Žalgiris
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.7%

26%

50.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.8%

25.1%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hegelmann Litauen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hegelmann Litauen than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Žalgiris will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Žalgiris (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paukste L. (G) 16. Remeikis M. 26. Slendzoka D. 30. Isaac B. 37. Radonja V. 19. Pasilys D. 10. Oum Gouet S. 8. Armanavicius V. (C) 9. Kazlauskas D. 77. Wesley 22. Tibell D.	12. Sarkauskas V. (G) 18. Sesplaukis D. 4. Koy Lupano D. 5. Turda G. 13. Upstas K. 9. Jarusevicius G. 6. Capan M. 8. Antal L. 10. Golubickas P. 22. Verbickas O. (C) 7. Mihajlovic N.
Substitutes
31. Bagdonavicius R. (G) 7. Duke C. 6. Harouna A. 67. Kaulinis A. 44. Nathan Silva 11. Njoya A. 5. Puerto A. 27. Richard 18. Sadauskas R. 45. Shchedryi A. 24. Sinkevicius D.	29. Bicka K. 15. Bosancic P. 21. Franke D. 77. Kendysh Y. 20. Lytvynenko I. 23. Mamatsashvili S. 1. Olses C. (G) 11. Petkovic N. 14. Setkus M. 70. Teixeira B. 27. Vareika M.
Coaches
Aramburu Erneta M.	Skerla A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Pasilys D. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Antal L. (Penalty Awarded),
26', Turda G. 🟨,
40', Sesplaukis D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kazlauskas D. ↓, Kaulinis A. ↑,
46', Golubickas P. ↓, Teixeira B. ↑,
46', Jarusevicius G. ↓, Vareika M. ↑,
52', 2 - 1, Wesley ⚽,
60', Verbickas O. ↓, Lytvynenko I. ↑,
72', Antal L. ↓, Petkovic N. ↑,
72', Pasilys D. ↓, Shchedryi A. ↑,
73', 2 - 2, Petkovic N. (Penalty Awarded),
78', Upstas K. ↓, Franke D. ↑,
81', Remeikis M. ↓, Sadauskas R. ↑,
86', Franke D. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hegelmann won 1.

Hegelmann is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Žalgiris is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hegelmann may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hegelmann has had a series of away games.

In this match, Žalgiris is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hegelmann won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:27. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hegelmann won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Zalgiris	28	13	5	10	41:34	7	44
8	Hegelmann	29	4	14	11	31:48	-17	26

Last Results with these Odds

Žalgiris - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 50.32%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
20.07.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Hegelmann Litauen	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Paide LM - Hegelmann Litauen	3:0 ✺
09.07.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
04.07.26	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	1:1 ✺
28.06.26	Banga Gargždai - Hegelmann Litauen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLTTL
- Žalgiris Vilnius
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Dinamo Tbilisi - Žalgiris	3:0 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
19.07.26	Žalgiris - Transinvest	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Žalgiris - Petrovac	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Petrovac - Žalgiris	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
05.07.26	FA Šiauliai - Žalgiris	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
24.05.26	Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	1:3
22.03.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris	0:0
Club Friendly
08.02.26	Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	1:0
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
02.11.25	Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	3:1
24.08.25	Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris	2:2
24.06.25	Žalgiris - Hegelmann Litauen	0:1
20.04.25	Hegelmann Litauen - Žalgiris	2:1

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