Match Info

3. Liga - Round 27

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Grünwalder Stadion (Munich)

Referee: Bauer T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	DFB Play, Magenta Sport, tv.dfb.de
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	1860 München		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	3.6	Watch
	1.8	3.75	4
	1.9	3.55	3.65	Watch
	2	3.64	3.96
	1.83	3.75	3.9	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.5
	1.93	3.54	3.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.82)	3.56 ↓ (3.78)	3.76 ↓ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

1860 München
49.2%

Draw
26.1%

Erzgebirge Aue
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

24.6%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

23.9%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

1860 München has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 1860 München than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95%	5%	0%

1860 München - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH -1 - draw (3.70) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: 1860 München will win (19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1860 München will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Dahne T. (G) 37. Schifferl R. 16. Reinthaler M. 3. Voet S. 2. Danhof T. 23. Dordan D. 5. Jacobsen T. (C) 29. Rittmuller M. 31. Volland K. 30. Wolfram M. 22. Haugen S.	1. Mannel M. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 16. Malone R. 11. Uhlmann E. 29. Collins J. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 5. Simnica L. 19. Guttau J. 34. Stefaniak M. 15. Bar M. 24. Ehlers J.
Substitutes
40. Bachmann P. (G) 33. Fassmann L. 34. Hobsch P. 44. Husic L. 41. Lippmann C. 7. Niederlechner F. 17. Schroter M. 9. Steinkotter J. 4. Verlaat J.	9. Bornschein R. 8. Clausen M. 20. Fabisch J. 27. Hetzsch F. 45. Ocansey V. A. F. 39. Schmid M. 30. Seiffert M. 36. Uhlig M. (G) 7. Weinhauer E.
Coaches
Kauczinski M.	Dabrowski C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Wolfram M. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Bar M. ⚽,
20', Gunther-Schmidt J. 🟨,
25', Collins J. 🟨,
30', Reinthaler M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 2 - 1, Haugen S. ⚽, Voet S. (A),
62', Malone R. 🟨,
65', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Ocansey V. A. F. ↑,
67', Wolfram M. ↓, Steinkotter J. ↑,
74', Stefaniak M. ↓, Clausen M. ↑,
81', Simnica L. ↓, Fabisch J. ↑,
81', Guttau J. ↓, Weinhauer E. ↑,
82', Volland K. ↓, Hobsch P. ↑,
82', Rittmuller M. ↓, Lippmann C. ↑,
90', Haugen S. ↓, Niederlechner F. ↑,
90+2', Fallmann P. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, 1860 München won 0.

1860 München is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aue is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

1860 München may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, 1860 München is considered a favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, 1860 München won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:24. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, 1860 München won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 2.1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Erzgebirge Aue - the odds 3.83 are the expected chance of winning is 24.29%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1860 München
German 3 Bundesliga
27.02.26	Hoffenheim II - 1860 München	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	1860 München - Hansa Rostock	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	TSV Havelse - 1860 München	0:5 ✺
07.02.26	VfB Stuttgart II - 1860 München	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	1860 München - Alemannia Aachen	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWLT
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
28.02.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Osnabrück	1:3 ✺
22.02.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Energie Cottbus	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Viktoria Köln - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	TSV Havelse - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
27.09.25	Erzgebirge Aue - 1860 München	2:0
17.05.25	1860 München - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1
21.12.24	Erzgebirge Aue - 1860 München	3:1
03.02.24	Erzgebirge Aue - 1860 München	0:0
02.09.23	1860 München - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2
18.03.23	Erzgebirge Aue - 1860 München	1:3
16.09.22	1860 München - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1

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