Match Info

3. Liga - Round 25

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Benen L. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport, MDR Fernsehen, RBB TV, tv.dfb.de
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	Erzgebirge Aue		Energie Cottbus

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.5	2.15	Watch
	2.92	3.6	2.15	Watch
	3.04	3.68	2.17
	3.1	3.76	2.08	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.1
	2.9	3.63	2.23	Watch
	3	3.6	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.82)	3.6 ↓ (3.63)	2.14 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
31.3%

Draw
25.7%

Energie Cottbus
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

25.6%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

24.6%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Energie Cottbus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Energie Cottbus than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Erzgebirge Aue - Energie Cottbus Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Cottbus will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 29. Collins J. 8. Clausen M. 20. Fabisch J. 19. Guttau J. 34. Stefaniak M. 15. Bar M. 24. Ehlers J.	33. Funk M. (G) 44. Straudi S. 23. Awortwie-Grant N. 2. Manu K. S. 24. Lucoqui A. 8. Michelbrink L. 5. Pelivan D. 20. Borgmann A. (C) 11. Hannemann M. 18. Engelhardt E. 10. Cigerci T.
Substitutes
23. Barylla A. 9. Bornschein R. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 22. Lord L. (G) 45. Ocansey V. A. F. 39. Schmid M. 30. Seiffert M. 5. Simnica L. 7. Weinhauer E.	37. Biankadi M. 19. Boziaris J. 31. Butler J. 4. Campulka T. 30. Cigerci T. 22. Cvjetinovic M. 17. Moustfa C. Y. 1. Sebald A. (G) 25. Tattermusch T.
Coaches
Dabrowski C.	Wollitz C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Bar M. ⚽, Clausen M. (A),
7', Fallmann P. 🟨,
12', 1 - 1, Manu K. S. ⚽, Michelbrink L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Michelbrink L. ↓, Cigerci T. ↑,
60', Hannemann M. ↓, Moustfa C. Y. ↑,
69', Guttau J. ↓, Gunther-Schmidt J. ↑,
80', Pelivan D. ↓, Butler J. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Borgmann A. ⚽, Cigerci T. (A),
88', Clausen M. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
89', Collins J. ↓, Ocansey V. A. F. ↑,
89', Cigerci T. ↓, Cvjetinovic M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Bundesliga (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aue won 2.

Aue has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cottbus is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cottbus may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cottbus will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Aue won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
13.02.26	Viktoria Köln - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	TSV Havelse - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Ulm 1846	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TTLLL
- Energie Cottbus
German 3 Bundesliga
15.02.26	Energie Cottbus - Waldhof Mannheim	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Ingolstadt - Energie Cottbus	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Energie Cottbus - Hoffenheim II	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Energie Cottbus - Schweinfurt	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Saarbrücken - Energie Cottbus	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
17.09.25	Energie Cottbus - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1
29.03.25	Energie Cottbus - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
22.10.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Energie Cottbus	1:3
Club Friendly
10.01.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Energie Cottbus	3:1
29.06.19	Energie Cottbus - Erzgebirge Aue	2:3
German 3 Bundesliga
02.03.16	Energie Cottbus - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0
18.09.15	Erzgebirge Aue - Energie Cottbus	1:0

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