Match Info

3. Liga - Round 26

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Hasmann J. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport
World	Onefootball


	Erzgebirge Aue		Osnabrück

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.5	2.05
	3.05	3.35	2.18	Watch
	3.14	3.45	2.3
	3.02	3.44	2.23	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.2
	3.12	3.33	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↓ (3.34)	3.34 ↓ (3.52)	2.19 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
30.1%

Draw
27.7%

Osnabrück
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

26.4%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

25.3%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Osnabrück has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osnabrück than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Osnabrück could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Erzgebirge Aue - Osnabrück Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Osnabrück (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Osnabrück will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 29. Collins J. 8. Clausen M. 11. Uhlmann E. 34. Stefaniak M. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 15. Bar M. 24. Ehlers J.	21. Jonsson L. (G) 27. Fabinski R. 24. Muller J. (C) 25. Wiemann N. 10. Proger K. 26. Wagner F. 19. Wiethaup K. 3. Christensen F. 37. Badjie I. 11. Meissner R. 18. Kehl L.
Substitutes
9. Bornschein R. 20. Fabisch J. 19. Guttau J. 45. Ocansey V. A. F. 39. Schmid M. 30. Seiffert M. 5. Simnica L. 36. Uhlig M. (G) 7. Weinhauer E.	5. Ajdini B. 6. Henning B. 20. Janotta T. 9. Kania J. 4. Karademir Y. 22. Riesselmann B. 1. Sauter N. (G) 8. Tesche R.
Coaches
Dabrowski C.	Schultz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Kehl L. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Badjie I. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Gunther-Schmidt J. ⚽, Ehlers J. (A),
44', Stefaniak M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
61', Uhlmann E. 🟨,
63', Badjie I. ↓, Lesueur T. ↑,
68', Gunther-Schmidt J. ↓, Guttau J. ↑,
69', Ehlers J. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
73', 1 - 2, Lesueur T. ⚽, Kehl L. (A),
74', 1 - 3, Lesueur T. ⚽,
78', Clausen M. ↓, Ocansey V. A. F. ↑,
78', Stefaniak M. ↓, Weinhauer E. ↑,
80', Kehl L. ↓, Tesche R. ↑,
84', Zobel T. 🟨,
85', Uhlmann E. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
87', Proger K. ↓, Ajdini B. ↑,
87', Wagner F. ↓, Kania J. ↑,
87', Meissner R. ↓, Janotta T. ↑,
89', Tesche R. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Bundesliga (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aue won 1.

Aue is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Osnabrück is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Osnabrück may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Osnabrück is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Aue won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 0.8:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
22.02.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Energie Cottbus	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Viktoria Köln - Erzgebirge Aue	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	TSV Havelse - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Ulm 1846	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTTLL
- VfL Osnabrück
German 3 Bundesliga
21.02.26	Osnabrück - Rot-Weiß Essen	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Hansa Rostock - Osnabrück	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Osnabrück - TSV Havelse	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Saarbrücken - Osnabrück	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Osnabrück - 1860 München	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
20.09.25	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1
25.01.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Osnabrück	0:0
10.08.24	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	0:2
04.02.23	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1
07.08.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Osnabrück	1:1
German 2 Bundesliga
23.05.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Osnabrück	2:1
22.01.21	Osnabrück - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1

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