Match Info

3. Liga - Round 23

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Behrens K. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 9
Germany	Magenta Sport, MDR Fernsehen, SR Fernsehen
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	Erzgebirge Aue		Saarbrücken

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.4	2.1	Watch
	2.95	3.6	2.2
	2.98	3.45	2.2	Watch
	3.16	3.6	2.23
	2.96	3.57	2.22	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.25
	3.01	3.55	2.2	Watch
	2.85	3.5	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.88)	3.49 ↓ (3.6)	2.21 (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
31.4%

Draw
26.6%

Saarbrücken
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

25.8%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

25%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

The chances for Saarbrücken have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saarbrücken than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Saarbrücken will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 23. Barylla A. 25. Zobel T. 29. Collins J. 20. Fabisch J. 11. Uhlmann E. 34. Stefaniak M. 15. Bar M. 8. Clausen M. 45. Ocansey V. A. F.	13. Menzel P. (G) 27. Bichsel J. 32. Bormuth R. 18. Wilhelm L. 7. Rizzuto C. 5. Krahn E. 6. Sontheimer P. 2. Fahrner P. 20. Pick F. 30. Baumann D. 15. Kamara A.
Substitutes
9. Bornschein R. 24. Ehlers J. 19. Guttau J. 22. Lord L. (G) 39. Schmid M. 30. Seiffert M. 5. Simnica L. 36. Uhlig M. (G) 7. Weinhauer E.	23. Civeja T. 17. Elongo-Yombo R. 31. Neudecker R. 1. Paterok T. (G) 10. Rabihic K. 39. Schmidt P. 33. Schumacher T. 19. Vasiliadis S. 24. Wollschlager L.
Coaches
Dabrowski C.	Luginger J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Bormuth R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Kamara A. 🟨,
60', Fabisch J. 🟨,
76', Kamara A. ↓, Elongo-Yombo R. ↑,
78', Bar M. ↓, Guttau J. ↑,
84', Clausen M. ↓, Weinhauer E. ↑,
85', Baumann D. ↓, Schmidt P. ↑,
85', Krahn E. ↓, Vasiliadis S. ↑,
88', Stefaniak M. 🟨,
90+3', Pick F. ↓, Civeja T. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aue won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Saarbrücken may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Aue won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Saarbrucken	8	4	2	2	19:12	7	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
30.01.26	TSV Havelse - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Ulm 1846	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Union Berlin	1:2 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Schweinfurt	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW
- 1. FC Saarbrücken
German 3 Bundesliga
31.01.26	Saarbrücken - Osnabrück	0:1 ✺
23.01.26	Viktoria Köln - Saarbrücken	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Saarbrücken - Energie Cottbus	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Hansa Rostock - Saarbrücken	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Saarbrücken - Hoffenheim II	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
30.08.25	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	4:1
08.04.25	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0
02.11.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	1:1
09.03.24	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0
07.10.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	2:0
26.02.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Saarbrücken	2:1
20.08.22	Saarbrücken - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0

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