Match Info

3. Liga - Round 22

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Eilenriedestadion (Hannover)

Referee: Kabalakli C. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport
Slovakia	Arena sport 1, Arena sport 2
World	Onefootball


	TSV Havelse		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.4	2.3	Watch
	2.7	3.6	2.3
	2.72	3.5	2.35	Watch
	2.85	3.65	2.38
	2.81	3.66	2.27	Watch
	2.63	3.4	2.25
	2.71	3.54	2.4	Watch
	2.85	3.5	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (2.9)	3.53 ↓ (3.68)	2.31 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TSV Havelse
33.8%

Draw
26.2%

Erzgebirge Aue
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

25.2%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

24.5%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TSV Havelse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TSV Havelse than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

TSV Havelse - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Havelse will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aue (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Aue (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Aue (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Opitz T. (G) 15. Duah D. 24. Plume N. 4. Kolgeci B. 8. Berger J. 14. Ilic M. 10. Duker J. (C) 19. Boujellab N. 7. Aytun E. 33. Rexhepi A. 9. Paldino L.	1. Mannel M. (G) 17. Fallmann P. 23. Barylla A. 25. Zobel T. 29. Collins J. 20. Fabisch J. 11. Uhlmann E. 34. Stefaniak M. 15. Bar M. 8. Clausen M. 45. Ocansey V. A. F.
Substitutes
11. Jaeschke Y. 5. Minz D. 23. Muller R. 31. Oltrogge J. 37. Ozdemir H. 39. Riedel F. 28. Rufidis J. 20. Schepp C.	24. Ehlers J. 19. Guttau J. 27. Hetzsch F. 22. Lord L. (G) 39. Schmid M. 30. Seiffert M. 5. Simnica L. 7. Weinhauer E.
Coaches
Ferchichi S.	Hartel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Barylla A. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Fabisch J. ⚽, Clausen M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Clausen M. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
63', Aytun E. ↓, Riedel F. ↑,
63', Rexhepi A. ↓, Muller R. ↑,
66', Kolgeci B. 🟨,
72', Bar M. ↓, Ehlers J. ↑,
74', 1 - 1, Boujellab N. ⚽,
79', Stefaniak M. ↓, Guttau J. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Paldino L. ⚽, Riedel F. (A),
84', Uhlmann E. ↓, Bornschein R. ↑,
86', Duker J. ↓, Oltrogge J. ↑,
90', Fabisch J. 🟨,
90+1', Paldino L. ↓, Schepp C. ↑,
90+6', 3 - 1, Muller R. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Havelse has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aue has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Havelse won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	TSV Havelse	8	1	1	6	10:20	-10	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSV Havelse
German 3 Bundesliga
24.01.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - TSV Havelse	4:1 ✺
18.01.26	TSV Havelse - Hoffenheim II	4:0 ✺
21.12.25	TSV Havelse - Alemannia Aachen	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Schweinfurt - TSV Havelse	2:3 ✺
06.12.25	TSV Havelse - Verl	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 LWTWT
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
24.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Ulm 1846	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Union Berlin	1:2 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Schweinfurt	4:0 ✺
13.12.25	Duisburg - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
24.08.25	Erzgebirge Aue - TSV Havelse	2:1

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