Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 15

Date: 28 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal)

Referee: Pfleger J. C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	ABC		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.35
	2.95	2.9	2.4	Watch
	3.1	2.82	2.58
	3.06	2.8	2.48	Watch
	2.9	2.88	2.3
	3.01	2.86	2.41	Watch
	3	2.85	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↑ (2.55)	2.84 ↓ (3.1)	2.42 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ABC
30.4%

Draw
32%

São Bernardo
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

29.5%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

29.7%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ABC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that ABC's form might have worsened.

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ABC than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for ABC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

ABC - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. São Bernardo will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Paulo (G) 8. Adeilson Maranhao 5. Daniel 4. Eduardo Thuram 28. Felipe Albuquerque 21. Iago 18. Jenison 23. Lima 6. Lucas Sampaio 17. Richardson (C) 14. Wellington Reis	1. Alex Alves (C) 97. Augusto 26. Davi Gabriel 21. Hugo Sanches 43. Joao Ramos 33. Kaua Jesus 99. Kayke 4. Rafael Forster 17. Romisson 88. Silvinho 23. Wesley Dias
Substitutes
12. Carlos Eduardo (G) 7. Emerson Galego 9. Jackson 16. Manoel 20. Matheus 26. Matheus Rocha 19. Pedro Felipe 25. Renan 27. Tite 15. Walfrido 11. Wallyson 3. Wesley	91. Alan Santos 27. Anareto K. (G) 6. Arthur Henrique 19. Cristaldo J. 30. Godoy de Andrade G. C. 11. Joao Diogo 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 75. Maycon Douglas 20. Nycollas 8. Rodrigo Souza 66. Vitor Ricardo 18. Wendell
Coaches
Roberto Fonseca	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', Silvinho ↓, Maycon Douglas ↑,
37', Lima 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Daniel ⚽,
43', Davi Gabriel 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 1 - 1, Kaua Jesus ⚽,
53', Jenison 🟨,
55', Wesley Dias 🟨,
64', Lima ↓, Emerson Galego ↑,
65', Kaua Jesus ↓, Joao Diogo ↑,
65', Wesley Dias ↓, Rodrigo Souza ↑,
71', Wellington Reis ↓, Matheus ↑,
71', Lucas Sampaio ↓, Manoel ↑,
76', Eduardo Thuram 🟨,
79', Iago ↓, Pedro Felipe ↑,
79', Hugo Sanches ↓, Vitor Ricardo ↑,
79', Kayke ↓, Cristaldo J. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Recent matches ABC is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

São Bernardo is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

ABC could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie C
21.07.24	Botafogo PB - ABC	1:0 ✺
15.07.24	ABC - Tombense	1:0 ✺
06.07.24	ABC - CS Alagoano	0:2 ✺
29.06.24	Ypiranga - ABC	1:1 ✺
24.06.24	ABC - Remo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWLTW
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
20.07.24	São Bernardo - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
14.07.24	Volta Redonda - São Bernardo	1:3 ✺
08.07.24	São Bernardo - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
29.06.24	Athletic Club - São Bernardo	1:4 ✺
23.06.24	São Bernardo - Figueirense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TWWWL

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