Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 27 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Maria Lamas Farache (Frasqueirao) (Natal)

Referee: Moraes A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, SBT, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping


	ABC		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	3.5	3	2.15	Watch
	3.4	2.98	2.08	Watch
	3.5	3	2.18
	3.11	2.92	2.43	Watch
	3.4	2.8	2.15
	3.42	2.89	2.16	Watch
	3.23	3.38	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (3.1)	3 ↓ (3.45)	2.17 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ABC
27.2%

Draw
30.6%

Vitória Salvador
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

26.1%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

25.8%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ABC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ABC than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ABC - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Alves (G) 6. Dudu Mandai 9. Igor Bahia 10. Joao Pedro 15. Jonathan 2. Lucas Marques 4. Lucas Souza 18. Luiz Fernando 11. Wallyson (C) 3. Wellington Carvalho 14. Wellington Reis	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 44. Baralhas (C) 25. Caca 95. Caique Goncalves 26. Edenilson 83. Jamerson 7. Marinho 45. Nathan Mendes 79. Renato Kayzer 12. Tarzia D. 88. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
99. Brunao 17. Bruno Leite 23. Cayo Tenorio 19. Esquerdinha E. 13. Fabao 16. Jefferson Vinicius 28. Joao Victor 21. Lima 22. Randerson 27. Rikelmi 12. Rodolfo Castro (G) 30. Vitor Luiz (G)	6. Emmanuel Martinez 33. Erick 23. Fabricio 22. Gabriel (G) 36. Luan Candido 20. Lucas Silva 10. Matheuzinho 77. Neris 11. Osvaldo 91. Rene 8. Ronald Lopes 55. Ze Breno
Coaches
Waguinho Dias	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Luiz Fernando ⚽,
20', Wellington Reis 🟨,
21', 1 - 1, Nathan Mendes ⚽,
27', Marinho 🟨,
36', 2 - 1, Luiz Fernando ⚽, Dudu Mandai (A),
40', Nathan Mendes ↓, Luan Candido ↑,
45+4', Wellington Carvalho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Renato Kayzer ↓, Rene ↑,
46', Marinho ↓, Erick ↑,
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Bruno Leite ↑,
46', Wellington Reis ↓, Rikelmi ↑,
64', Caique Goncalves 🟨,
68', Caique Goncalves ↓, Ze Breno ↑,
73', 2 - 2, Baralhas ⚽,
77', Tarzia D. ↓, Fabricio ↑,
77', Luiz Fernando ↓, Lima ↑,
81', Lucas Arcanjo 🟨,
87', Dudu Mandai ↓, Jefferson Vinicius ↑,
88', 3 - 2, Igor Bahia ⚽,
89', 3 - 3, Fabricio ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 2-6.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ABC won 0.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

ABC may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Vitória will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, ABC won 2 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:25. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, ABC won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 0.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie D
24.05.26	ABC - América RN	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Vitória Salvador - ABC	6:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
16.05.26	ABC - Sousa	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Central SC - ABC	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	ABC - Juazeirense	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLWWW
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Internacional RS	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Vitória Salvador - ABC	6:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.05.26	Vitória Salvador - ABC	6:2
10.02.24	Vitória Salvador - ABC	3:1
Brazilian Serie B
02.08.23	Vitória Salvador - ABC	2:0
23.04.23	ABC - Vitória Salvador	0:3
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
18.02.23	Vitória Salvador - ABC	1:1
Brazilian Serie C
10.09.22	ABC - Vitória Salvador	0:0
04.09.22	Vitória Salvador - ABC	0:0

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