Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Barradao (Salvador)

Referee: Holanda L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, SBT, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Vitória Salvador		ABC

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.25	5	Watch
	1.72	3.25	4.55	Watch
	1.69	3.5	4.98
	2.43	3.47	2.67	Watch
	1.73	3.1	4.75
	1.68	3.3	4.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.39)	3.31 ↓ (4.08)	4.48 ↓ (7.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória Salvador
51.1%

Draw
28.1%

ABC
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

22.3%

12.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

21.3%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória Salvador has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitória Salvador's form might have worsened.

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting ABC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitória Salvador, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for ABC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vitória Salvador - ABC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 45. Nathan Mendes 25. Caca 36. Luan Candido 13. Ramon 44. Baralhas (C) 88. Ze Vitor 6. Emmanuel Martinez 33. Erick 79. Renato Kayzer 10. Matheuzinho	1. Matheus Alves (G) 2. Lucas Marques 5. Edson (C) 3. Wellington Carvalho 6. Dudu Mandai 15. Jonathan 8. Geilson 10. Joao Pedro 18. Luiz Fernando 11. Wallyson 9. Igor Bahia
Substitutes
95. Caique Goncalves 26. Edenilson 83. Jamerson 31. Lopez R. 20. Lucas Silva 7. Marinho 11. Osvaldo 91. Rene 8. Ronald Lopes 12. Tarzia D. 71. Yuri (G) 55. Ze Breno	99. Brunao 17. Bruno Leite 19. Esquerdinha E. 16. Jefferson Vinicius 28. Joao Victor 4. Lucas Souza 22. Randerson 27. Rikelmi 12. Rodolfo Castro (G)
Coaches
Jair Ventura	Waguinho Dias

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Igor Bahia ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Renato Kayzer ⚽,
40', Igor Bahia 🟨,
42', Ze Vitor 🟨,
43', 1 - 2, Wallyson ⚽,
45+8', Edson 🟥,
45+11', 2 - 2, Renato Kayzer ⚽,
45+13', Wallyson 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Lucas Souza ↑,
46', Ze Vitor ↓, Rene ↑,
46', Ramon ↓, Jamerson ↑,
47', 3 - 2, Rene ⚽,
59', 4 - 2, Rene ⚽,
65', Igor Bahia ↓, Bruno Leite ↑,
65', Jonathan ↓, Rikelmi ↑,
67', Geilson 🟥,
69', Nathan Mendes ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
77', Renato Kayzer ↓, Osvaldo ↑,
77', Erick ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
78', Wallyson ↓, Randerson ↑,
83', 5 - 2, Osvaldo ⚽,
86', Caca 🟨,
90+3', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
90+3', 6 - 2, Osvaldo ⚽,
90+3', 🟨,
90+7', Emmanuel Martinez 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 3.

Vitória is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

ABC is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Vitória may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, ABC has had a series of home games.

In this match, Vitória is the clear favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Vitória won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitória won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.2 LWTWW
- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie D
16.05.26	ABC - Sousa	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Central SC - ABC	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	ABC - Juazeirense	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	ABC - Central SC	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	ABC - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
10.02.24	Vitória Salvador - ABC	3:1
Brazilian Serie B
02.08.23	Vitória Salvador - ABC	2:0
23.04.23	ABC - Vitória Salvador	0:3
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
18.02.23	Vitória Salvador - ABC	1:1
Brazilian Serie C
10.09.22	ABC - Vitória Salvador	0:0
04.09.22	Vitória Salvador - ABC	0:0
31.07.22	Vitória Salvador - ABC	2:2

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