Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 15

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN 2, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, M+ Liga de Campeones
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fluminense		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	1.51	4.33	5.75	Watch
	1.55	3.95	5.9	Watch
	1.55	4.28	6.64
	1.54	4.17	6.34
	1.5	4	5.75
	1.54	4.41	6.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.5)	4.19 ↑ (3.65)	6.14 ↓ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
61.9%

Draw
22.6%

Vitória Salvador
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61%

25%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2%

24.1%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Fluminense - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier (C) 4. Ignacio 29. Millan J. 6. Rene 16. Nonato 25. Alisson 11. Savarino J. 32. Acosta L. 7. Soteldo Y. 9. John Kennedy	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 45. Nathan Mendes 26. Edenilson 95. Caique Goncalves 36. Luan Candido 13. Ramon 44. Baralhas (C) 88. Ze Vitor 6. Emmanuel Martinez 79. Renato Kayzer 91. Rene
Substitutes
5. Bernal F. 17. Canobbio A. 19. Castillo R. 22. Freytes J. 23. Guga 13. Guilherme Arana 35. Hercules 21. Igor Rabello 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 90. Serna K. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	23. Fabricio 83. Jamerson 31. Lopez R. 20. Lucas Silva 7. Marinho 77. Neris 11. Osvaldo 62. Pablo 8. Ronald Lopes 12. Tarzia D. 71. Yuri (G) 55. Ze Breno
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, John Kennedy ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', Renato Kayzer 🟨,
60', Alisson 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Renato Kayzer (Penalty Awarded),
67', 1 - 2, Rene ⚽, Renato Kayzer (A),
73', Ramon 🟨,
73', Nonato ↓, Castillo R. ↑,
73', Soteldo Y. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
74', Alisson ↓, Hercules ↑,
75', Renato Kayzer ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
76', Samuel Xavier 🟨,
82', Caique Goncalves ↓, Ze Breno ↑,
82', Rene ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
83', Samuel Xavier ↓, Guga ↑,
83', Savarino J. ↓, Riquelme Felipe ↑,
88', Nathan Mendes ↓, Neris ↑,
88', Baralhas ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Serna K. ⚽, John Kennedy (A),
90+2', Riquelme Felipe 🟨,
90+7', Rene 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Fluminense has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fluminense is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Fluminense: Cano G. (Muscle Injury) Jemmes (Yellow Cards) Martinelli (Hamstring Injury) Matheus Reis (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vitória: Camutanga (Broken Leg) Claudinho (Muscle Injury) Dudu (Back Injury) Edu (Achilles Tendon Injury) Gabriel (Inactive) Matheusinho (Injury) Matheuzinho (Yellow Cards) Pedro H. (Hand Injury) Ramos R. (Knee Injury) Riccieli (Calf Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.1:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Copa Libertadores
06.05.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Internacional RS - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
30.04.26	Bolívar - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Fluminense - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Operário Ferroviario - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLLWT
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
29.04.26	Confiança - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Athletico Paranaense - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Flamengo - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
20.09.25	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	0:1
20.04.25	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	1:1
26.10.24	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	2:1
27.06.24	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	0:1
06.09.18	Fluminense - Vitória Salvador	0:0
06.05.18	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	1:2
10.09.17	Vitória Salvador - Fluminense	2:2

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