Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: OPAP Arena (Athens)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1


	AEK Athens		Aris Limassol

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.9	5.75	Watch
	1.49	4.33	5.5
	1.52	4.15	5.4	Watch
	1.52	4.01	5.78
	1.70	3.55	5.00	Watch
	1.57	4.25	5.98	Watch
	1.55	4.1	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.51)	4.04 ↑ (4)	5.52 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Athens
60%

Draw
23.1%

Aris Limassol
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

23.2%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

22.7%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Athens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Aris Limassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aris Limassol than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.1%	15.9%	0%

AEK Athens - Aris Limassol Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK (votes: 14 - 70%). Tie (votes: 6 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 71.4%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 7 - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Aris Limassol (2.44) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Aris Limassol (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Aris Limassol (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AEK Athens will win (36 of 43 users predict this - 83.72%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.69% – 94.75%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK (votes: 14 - 58.3%). Aris Limassol (votes: 4 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 6 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. 44. Relvas F. 29. Penrice J. 13. Pineda O. 20. Mantalos P. (C) 37. Pereyra R. 18. Marin R. 90. Zini 14. Pierrot F.	1. Vana Alves (G) 20. Yago S. 27. Balogun L. 6. Goldson C. (C) 7. Anderson Correia 8. Markhiev A. 76. Charalampous C. 10. Mayambela M. 11. Kvilitaia G. 45. McCausland R. 80. Kakoullis A.
Substitutes
81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 8. Gacinovic M. 6. Jonsson J. 9. Jovic L. 11. Koita A. 73. Kolimatsis C. 34. Kosidis C. 7. Kutesa D. 23. Ljubicic R. 3. Pilios S. 21. Vida D.	18. Bourhane Y. 3. Caju 99. Effaghe R. 29. Gaustad D. 9. Kokorin A. 15. Loucoubar A. 17. Matysik M. 66. Montnor J. 26. Pishias A. (G) 90. Sofroniou E. (G)
Coaches
Nikolic M.	Radkov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Pereyra R. ↓, Ljubicic R. ↑,
21', Markhiev A. 🟨,
44', Pineda O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Penrice J. ↓, Pilios S. ↑,
46', McCausland R. ↓, Montnor J. ↑,
51', 1 - 0, Marin R. (Pen),
62', 1 - 1, Kvilitaia G. (Pen),
65', Anderson Correia ↓, Caju ↑,
66', Kakoullis A. ↓, Kokorin A. ↑,
73', Pierrot F. ↓, Gacinovic M. ↑,
73', Pineda O. ↓, Koita A. ↑,
77', Kvilitaia G. ↓, Effaghe R. ↑,
79', Goldson C. 🟨,
85', Mantalos P. ↓, Kutesa D. ↑,
89', Mayambela M. ↓, Gaustad D. ↑,
Extra Time (2 - 0)
100', Zini ↓, Jovic L. ↑,
104', 2 - 1, Kutesa D. ⚽,
109', 3 - 1, Jovic L. ⚽, Kutesa D. (A),
110', Charalampous C. 🟨,
118', Charalampous C. ↓, Bourhane Y. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 2-2. 2nd leg.

AEK is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aris Limassol's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, AEK is the team to beat.

We predict that AEK will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, AEK won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Athens
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Aris Limassol - AEK Athens	2:2 ✺
31.07.25	Hapoel Beer Sheva - AEK Athens	0:0 ✺
24.07.25	AEK Athens - Hapoel Beer Sheva	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.25	AEK Athens - Omonia	1:0 ✺
09.07.25	AEK Athens - Kortrijk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTWWW
- Aris Limassol FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Aris Limassol - AEK Athens	2:2 ✺
31.07.25	Puskás Academy - Aris Limassol	0:2 ✺
24.07.25	Aris Limassol - Puskás Academy	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.07.25	Slavia Prague - Aris Limassol	3:2 ✺
05.07.25	Górnik Zabrze - Aris Limassol	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Aris Limassol - AEK Athens	2:2

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