Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 25

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday


	AJEL de Rufisque		Stade de Mbour

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.25	3.85
	2.59	1.99	4.48
	2.89	1.87	4.87	Watch
	2.5	2.38	3.25
	2.45	2.47	3.9	Watch
	2.1	2.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.05)	2.26 ↓ (2.54)	4.06 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AJEL de Rufisque
36.8%

Draw
40.6%

Stade de Mbour
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

34.8%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

33.3%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AJEL de Rufisque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AJEL de Rufisque's form might have worsened.

Stade de Mbour has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AJEL de Rufisque than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AJEL de Rufisque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stade de Mbour than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

AJEL de Rufisque - Stade de Mbour Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. AJEL will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. AJEL (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: ) and 11).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

AJEL may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Mbour has had a series of home games.

AJEL could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, AJEL won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	AJEL	30	15	9	6	27:19	8	54
10	Mbour	30	5	18	7	18:21	-3	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AJEL de Rufisque
Senegal Ligue 1
25.04.26	Wally Daan - AJEL de Rufisque	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Dakar SC - AJEL de Rufisque	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	AJEL de Rufisque - Ouakam	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	HLM - AJEL de Rufisque	3:0 ✺
25.03.26	AJEL de Rufisque - Camberene	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWLT
- Stade de Mbour
Senegal Ligue 1
26.04.26	Stade de Mbour - Ouakam	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	HLM - Stade de Mbour	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Stade de Mbour - Camberene	0:0 ✺
25.03.26	Stade de Mbour - Jaraaf	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Stade de Mbour - Pikine	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Senegal Ligue 1
07.01.26	Stade de Mbour - AJEL de Rufisque	0:2

AJEL de Rufisque - Stade de Mbour: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide