Match Info

1. MFL - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday


	AP Brera Strumica		Shkupi

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5
	1.71	3.92	4.17	Watch
	1.63	3.82	4.47
	2.1	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.12)	3.61 ↑ (3.2)	4.19 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AP Brera Strumica
52.5%

Draw
25.5%

Shkupi
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

27.6%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AP Brera Strumica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AP Brera Strumica's performance.

Shkupi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shkupi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AP Brera Strumica than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AP Brera Strumica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shkupi than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shkupi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

AP Brera Strumica - Shkupi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Brera Strumica (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AP Brera Strumica will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AP Brera Strumica will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Brera Strumica (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vrgov S. (G) 21. Antovski F. (C) 30. Arizankoski A. 77. Drame H. 31. Lukovic L. 88. Makic E. 6. Naumcheski S. 5. Stojilevski M. 8. Todorov M. 23. Trawally F. 7. Velickovski N.	99. Grote M. (G) 21. Adili D. 34. Destani A. 11. Mehmed A. 6. Milaj A. 10. Muharem S. (C) 5. Murati N. 23. Richkov A. 22. Richkov M. 27. Rifadov A. 4. Spahiu R.
Substitutes
15. Cuestas M. 90. Davchev M. 19. Delov V. 14. Hassan W. 22. Mihailov F. 4. Mitrev M. 9. Ndzengue F. 28. Shirikj I. 99. Stojanov K. 3. Velkov A.	17. Hayvali M. 19. Kadri E. 31. Meljachi A. (G) 14. Nazifi Z. 38. Ozturk A. 7. Ribeiro L. 16. Sadiku L. 89. Shuku E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', 🟨,
37', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 🟨,
65', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, ⚽,
85', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. MFL and 12 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. MFL).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brera Strumica won 1.

Recent form of Brera Strumica has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Shkupi has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Shkupi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Brera Strumica has had a series of away games.

Brera Strumica will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brera Strumica won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 17:30. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Brera Strumica won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 0.9:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AP Brera Strumica
North Macedonian 1 MFL
31.08.25	Tikveš - AP Brera Strumica	0:0 ✺
North Macedonian Cup
26.08.25	Ohrid - AP Brera Strumica	2:1 penalties ✺
North Macedonian 1 MFL
22.08.25	Vardar - AP Brera Strumica	2:2 ✺
18.08.25	AP Brera Strumica - Pelister	1:2 ✺
11.08.25	Sileks - AP Brera Strumica	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TLTLL
- FK Shkupi
North Macedonian Cup
10.09.25	Kožuf Gevgelija - Shkupi	0:2 ✺
North Macedonian 1 MFL
29.08.25	Shkupi - Vardar	2:4 ✺
25.08.25	Pelister - Shkupi	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Shkupi - Sileks	Sileks awarded ✺
08.08.25	Shkendija Tetovo - Shkupi	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLL?L

Latest Head to Head

North Macedonian 1 MFL
07.05.25	AP Brera Strumica - Shkupi	4:3
23.02.25	AP Brera Strumica - Shkupi	1:2
05.10.24	Shkupi - AP Brera Strumica	3:1
12.05.24	Shkupi - AP Brera Strumica	0:0
10.12.23	AP Brera Strumica - Shkupi	0:1
16.09.23	Shkupi - AP Brera Strumica	1:0
18.03.23	AP Brera Strumica - Shkupi	1:1

AP Brera Strumica - Shkupi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide