Match Info

Date: 25 May 2022, Wednesday

Location: Color Line Stadion (Ålesund)

Referee: Higraff D. (Nor)


	Aalesunds		Jerv

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	7	Watch
	1.47	4.33	6.25
	1.48	4.6	6.25
	1.42	4.5	6.4
	1.48	4.72	7.03
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.49	4.5	6.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.65)	4.43 ↑ (3.57)	6.55 ↑ (5.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aalesunds
64.4%

Draw
21.3%

Jerv
14.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

26.2%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

25.3%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aalesunds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aalesunds's performance.

Jerv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aalesunds than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aalesunds that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.6%	11.4%	20%

Aalesunds - Jerv Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Aalesunds will win (votes: 24 - 68.6%). Jerv will win (votes: 7 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aalesunds: 53.2% – 84%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 6 and 13).

Aalesunds has the most likely position - 8 (12.41%), has project points - 39, has currently - 11, has a small chance of relegated (6%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Jerv has the most likely position - 16 (28.8%), has project points - 26, has currently - 7, has a good chance of relegated (59%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 20, importance 34, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aalesunds won 1.

Recent matches Aalesunds is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Jerv is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Aalesunds have a series of guest games.

In this match Aalesunds is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Aalesunds: Segberg E. (Injury)

There will not play in Jerv: Fernandes L. (Injury) Hustad E. (Red Card) Mafi I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aalesunds: Barmen K. (Injury) Fallman D. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Aalesunds won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Aalesunds won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aalesunds FK
Norwegian Eliteserien
22.05.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Aalesunds	1:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
19.05.22	Fjøra - Aalesunds	0:3 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
16.05.22	Aalesunds - Molde	0:2 ✺
08.05.22	Hamarkameratene - Aalesunds	0:0 ✺
28.04.22	Lillestrøm SK - Aalesunds	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWLTL
- FK Jerv
Norwegian Eliteserien
22.05.22	Jerv - Odd	0:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
19.05.22	IL Express - Jerv	0:7 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
16.05.22	Viking Stavanger - Jerv	3:0 ✺
08.05.22	Jerv - Tromsø	1:1 ✺
24.04.22	Vålerenga - Jerv	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
29.09.21	Jerv - Aalesunds	2:2
17.07.21	Aalesunds - Jerv	1:1
01.09.19	Aalesunds - Jerv	4:0
26.05.19	Jerv - Aalesunds	0:0
30.09.18	Aalesunds - Jerv	1:1
29.08.18	Jerv - Aalesunds	0:3

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