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Current Win Probability
Sarpsborg 08 50.1%
Draw 22.9%
Aalesunds 27%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
53.7%
23.1%
23.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
54.9%
23.6%
22.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sarpsborg 08 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
Aalesunds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarpsborg 08 than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aalesunds than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
50%
33.3%
16.7%
Sarpsborg 08 - Aalesunds Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Sarpsborg will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Aalesunds will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
87. Oy L. (G) 32. Wichne E. 4. Utvik B. 24. Rosted S. (C) 20. Reinhardsen P. 10. Sorli S. 8. Christiansen S. 77. Skarsem O. 17. Williams N. 22. Halvorsen V. E. 11. Karlsbakk D.
1. Podlech L. (G) 7. Nesso K. 2. Andresen M. 28. Mbacke D. 3. Gudmundsson O. 14. Charles U. 21. Christensen M. (C) 18. Hagen E. 19. Kartum S. 8. Skotheim I. 23. Vecchia S.
Substitutes
7. Camil Mmaee 18. Gueye B. 21. Hiim A. 5. Hoyland L. 1. Larsen J. (G) 2. Lode M. 33. Nibe A. 12. Niyukuri C. 6. Sher A.
22. Engqvist E. 5. Kjelsen A. 26. Larsen T. (G) 38. Leikanger T. 17. Myrlid E. 9. Ngongo P. 16. Orsahl J. 15. Osenbroch E.
Coaches
Sel E.
Rekdal K.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Rosted S. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Christensen M. ⚽, Kartum S. (A),
35', Gudmundsson O. 🟥,
40', Vecchia S. ↓, Engqvist E. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Williams N. ↓, Gueye B. ↑,
46', Reinhardsen P. ↓, Hiim A. ↑,
46', Skotheim I. ↓, Ngongo P. ↑,
47', Andresen M. 🟨,
62', Utvik B. ↓, Lode M. ↑,
62', Christiansen S. ↓, Sher A. ↑,
79', Wichne E. ↓, Camil Mmaee ↑,
80', Karlsbakk D. 🟨,
84', Andresen M. ↓, Kjelsen A. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Camil Mmaee ⚽, Karlsbakk D. (A),
90+4', 2 - 1, Hiim A. ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 11th and 14th in the Eliteserien (Relegation)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarpsborg won 3.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
Sarpsborg may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Aalesunds has had a run of games away from home.
Sarpsborg is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
Confirmed absences for Sarpsborg: Carstensen F.
(Injury)
Opoku M.
(Ankle Injury).
Confirmed absences for Aalesunds: Hammer H.
(Injury)
Haram S.
(Elbow Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Aalesunds: Aukland P.
(Injury)
Kjelsen A.
(Injury).
In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Sarpsborg has recorded 10 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 34:22 (averaging 2:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Sarpsborg against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 16:8 goals (averaging 2:1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
7
Sarpsborg 08
24
8
7
9
30:35
-5
31
14
Aalesund
24
5
9
10
40:53
-13
24
Last Results with these Odds
Aalesunds - the odds 4.06 are the expected chance of winning is 23.26%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.
Norway
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Oy L. (G) 
Williams N. 
Podlech L. (G) 
Mbacke D. 
Gudmundsson O. 
Charles U. 
Christensen M. (C) 
Camil Mmaee 
Niyukuri C. 
Sher A. 
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