Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 6

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra (Coimbra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Académica Coimbra		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2	3.15	3.35
	2.05	3.32	3.82
	2.01	3.41	3.6	Watch
	2	3	3.5
	1.97	3.14	3.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.88)	3.2 ↑ (3.18)	3.58 ↓ (3.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Académica Coimbra
45.7%

Draw
28.6%

Mafra
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

28.7%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

28.2%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Académica Coimbra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Académica Coimbra - Mafra Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Académica (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Académica (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alves C. (G) 28. Cascavel 18. Cuba 11. Farias E. 15. Kaka 17. Marcos Paulo 6. Montez A. 4. Silva G. 5. Silva L. 93. Souza B. 3. Teixeira R.	33. Silva P. (G) 3. Alves K. 39. Andrey 2. Camara M. 19. Iheanacho S. 7. Matos R. 90. Moreira R. 9. Niang M. 30. Ninte M. 29. Rossi R. 46. Sambu B.
Substitutes
2. Baixinho M. 9. Barbosa N. 21. Candeias D. 49. Joao Pedro 23. Karseladze J. 1. Macedo N. (G) 7. Tiago Andre 14. Triana C. 19. Xavier	10. Fati E. 66. Ferreira J. 8. Goncalves V. 1. Lemos F. (G) 6. Pinto R. 27. Precatado J. 4. Queta M. 96. So S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Cuba ⚽, Cascavel (A),
35', Camara M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Cuba 🟨,
50', 2 - 0, Montez A. ⚽,
55', Ninte M. ↓, Fati E. ↑,
61', Cuba ↓, Triana C. ↑,
66', Rossi R. 🟨,
69', Cascavel 🟨,
69', Andrey ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
71', Cascavel ↓, Jesus P. ↑,
71', Silva L. ↓, Candeias D. ↑,
71', Souza B. ↓, Xavier ↑,
73', Farias E. 🟨,
81', Matos R. ↓, So S. ↑,
83', Marcos Paulo 🟨,
86', Marcos Paulo ↓, Baixinho M. ↑,
90', Moreira R. 🟨,
90+4', Alves K. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 4 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Académica won 0.

Académica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mafra is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mafra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Académica is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Académica won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Académica won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Académica Coimbra - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 48.44%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
07.03.26	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
06.02.26	Académica Coimbra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Caldas - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLWL
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.26	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	União de Santarém - Mafra	3:1 ✺
27.02.26	Trofense - Mafra	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Amarante - Mafra	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
06.12.25	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	3:3
24.08.25	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	1:0
Portuguese Liga 2
30.04.22	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	0:2
18.12.21	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	2:2
08.05.21	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	2:2
11.01.21	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	1:0
15.02.20	Académica Coimbra - Mafra	0:0

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