Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 3

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.92	3	2.28
	3.02	3.19	2.42
	3	3.13	2.4	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.3
	2.99	3.02	2.3
	2.85	3	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↓ (3.18)	3.04 ↓ (3.12)	2.34 ↑ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
31%

Draw
30%

Mafra
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

29.2%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

28.4%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Amarante - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Duarte M. (G) 22. Vivas S. 3. Mendes F. 4. Filipe J. (C) 28. Pedro R. 6. Almeida F. 10. Rodrigues D. 5. Innusah H. 80. Ventura 90. Arome 23. Saint-Louis J.	33. Silva P. (G) 52. Xico 3. Alves K. 39. Andrey 66. Ferreira J. 13. Raposo C. 46. Sambu B. (C) 85. Neves L. 2. Camara M. 19. Iheanacho S. 9. Niang M.
Substitutes
88. Aguiar E. 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 58. Meireles A. 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 26. Nascimento D. 2. Ribeiro O. 99. Roger 8. Zangre A.	10. Fati E. 8. Goncalves V. 7. Matos R. 90. Moreira R. 6. Pinto R. 27. Precatado J. 99. Ribeiro L. (G) 29. Rossi R. 96. So S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Andrey 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Ventura ⚽, Saint-Louis J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Andrey ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
46', Iheanacho S. ↓, Fati E. ↑,
52', Fati E. 🟨,
55', Ferreira J. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
64', Rodrigues D. ↓, Zangre A. ↑,
72', Raposo C. ↓, Moreira R. ↑,
76', Arome ↓, Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↑,
79', Sambu B. ↓, Pinto R. ↑,
85', Saint-Louis J. ↓, Meireles A. ↑,
86', Almeida F. ↓, Conceicao M. ↑,
86', 🟨,
90+2', Meireles A. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Amarante have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mafra is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mafra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Amarante - the odds 3.18 are the expected chance of winning is 28.67%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
07.02.26	Varzim - Amarante	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Paredes - Amarante	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Amarante - Braga B	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	São João de Ver - Amarante	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LTTWW
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	1 Dezembro - Mafra	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Mafra - Caldas	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWTTW

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