Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Trofense		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.92	2.82
	2.74	2.97	2.88
	2.62	2.99	2.82	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.75
	2.57	3.15	2.76	Watch
	2.5	2.88	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.54)	2.97 ↑ (2.87)	2.8 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
36%

Draw
31%

Mafra
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

31.4%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

33%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Trofense - Mafra Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Trofense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Silva N. (C) 14. Assis Cardoso R. H. 4. Basto H. 5. Cunha G. 19. Diarra M. 10. Feliz 29. Joel 26. Lobo G. 2. Oliveira J. 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 78. Ruca	33. Silva P. (G) 3. Alves K. 2. Camara M. 10. Fati E. 8. Goncalves V. (C) 90. Moreira R. 85. Neves L. 9. Niang M. 13. Raposo C. 46. Sambu B. 52. Xico
Substitutes
6. Daniel J. 22. Duarte E. 7. Ivandro 11. Paciencia V. 8. Reko Silva 77. Roka 44. Saldanha F. 12. Teopisto (G) 30. Welisson	39. Andrey 66. Ferreira J. 11. Goba Zakpa 7. Matos R. 6. Pinto R. 27. Precatado J. 99. Ribeiro L. (G) 29. Rossi R. 96. So S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Lobo G. ⚽, Oliveira J. (A),
45+6', Sambu B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Goncalves V. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
46', Raposo C. ↓, Goba Zakpa ↑,
46', Fati E. ↓, Andrey ↑,
59', Cunha G. 🟨,
60', Assis Cardoso R. H. ↓, Reko Silva ↑,
60', Joel ↓, Duarte E. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Matos R. ⚽, Xico (A),
80', Diarra M. ↓, Paciencia V. ↑,
80', Lobo G. ↓, Ivandro ↑,
90', Ruca ↓, Welisson ↑,
90+1', Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 8 and 7).

Trofense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Mafra has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Trofense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	Varzim - Trofense	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Trofense - União de Santarém	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Belenenses - Trofense	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Trofense - Marco 09	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTTL
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	Amarante - Mafra	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Mafra - Varzim	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	1 Dezembro - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.05.23	Trofense - Mafra	1:2
21.01.23	Mafra - Trofense	1:0
20.02.22	Trofense - Mafra	1:3
18.09.21	Mafra - Trofense	0:0

Trofense - Mafra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide