Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 2

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Mafra (Mafra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Mafra		Varzim

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.05	2.92
	2.25	3.22	3.39
	2.35	3.18	3.05	Watch
	2.2	3	3.1
	2.29	3.16	3.16
	2.14	3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.29)	3.1 ↑ (2.92)	3.14 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mafra
41%

Draw
29.7%

Varzim
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

31.2%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

30.2%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Mafra - Varzim Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Mafra (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mafra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Silva P. (G) 3. Alves K. 39. Andrey 5. Beni D. 2. Camara M. 19. Iheanacho S. 85. Neves L. 9. Niang M. 30. Ninte M. 46. Sambu B. (C) 52. Xico	51. Momo Mbaye (G) 11. Benchi D. 19. Chamito 4. Chicao 77. Franca F. 7. Gomes A. 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. 2. Pimenta G. (C) 31. Talocha 44. Vila Cova M.
Substitutes
10. Fati 66. Ferreira J. 8. Goncalves V. 7. Matos R. 90. Moreira R. 6. Pinto R. 13. Raposo C. 99. Ribeiro L. (G) 96. So S.	27. Boloto 49. Costa P. (G) 71. Filipe L. 14. Graca H. 35. Gunjo J. 99. Pedro Clemente 45. Rebelo M. 32. Rego R. 17. Sequeira D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Chicao 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Beni D. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
58', Franca F. 🟨,
60', Benchi D. ↓, Gunjo J. ↑,
60', Gomes A. ↓, Pedro Clemente ↑,
62', Ninte M. ↓, Raposo C. ↑,
65', Neves L. 🟨,
67', Iheanacho S. ↓, Fati E. ↑,
67', Neves L. ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
73', Chamito ↓, Rebelo M. ↑,
73', Franca F. ↓, Boloto ↑,
83', 1 - 0, Camara M. ⚽,
85', Chicao ↓, Graca H. ↑,
88', Xico 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Varzim may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Mafra won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mafra won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.4:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
24.01.26	Atlético CP - Mafra	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	1 Dezembro - Mafra	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Mafra - Caldas	4:2 ✺
20.12.25	Amora - Mafra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTTWW
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
07.02.26	Varzim - Amarante	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Marco 09 - Varzim	1:3 ✺
17.01.26	Varzim - Sanjoanense	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Varzim	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Fafe - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
15.05.22	Varzim - Mafra	2:0
08.01.22	Mafra - Varzim	0:0
20.03.21	Varzim - Mafra	2:0
01.11.20	Mafra - Varzim	3:1
01.03.20	Varzim - Mafra	2:1
22.09.19	Mafra - Varzim	1:1
20.01.19	Mafra - Varzim	2:0

Mafra - Varzim: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide