Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 7

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra (Coimbra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Académica Coimbra		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.75	5.15
	1.71	3.57	4.72	Watch
	1.64	3.86	4.96	Watch
	1.58	3.74	5.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.76)	3.73 ↑ (3.45)	4.97 ↑ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Académica Coimbra
56.8%

Draw
24.7%

Covilhã
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

26.4%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

25.7%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Académica Coimbra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Académica Coimbra - Covilhã Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Académica (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Académica (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Académica Coimbra will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Académica Coimbra will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Académica (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Alves C. (G) 11. Farias E. 3. Teixeira R. 4. Silva G. 15. Kaka 6. Montez A. 17. Marcos Paulo 5. Silva L. 9. Barbosa N. 18. Cuba 28. Cascavel	31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 77. Silva M. 24. Loureiro G. 33. Calegari A. 22. Gomes Silva E. 6. Barbosa A. 20. Ferreira R. 8. Coelho R. 19. Cruz F. 79. Liberal A. 99. Niang C.
Substitutes
12. Gabriel Passos 23. Karseladze J. 1. Macedo N. (G) 8. Pereira F. 10. Pereira N. 93. Souza B. 7. Tiago Andre 14. Triana C. 27. Vitor G.	2. Candido 21. Cunha V. 55. Garcia F. 74. Igreja T. (G) 96. Jailson 28. Lontsi V. 10. Mica 13. Ribeiro P. 5. Tiago Caveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Coelho R. 🟨,
32', Marcos Paulo 🟨,
37', Barbosa A. 🟨,
41', Marcos Paulo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Liberal A. 🟨,
56', 🟨,
59', Barbosa A. ↓, Mica ↑,
60', Cruz F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
63', Barbosa N. ↓, Pereira F. ↑,
63', Cascavel ↓, Triana C. ↑,
73', Cuba ↓, Pereira N. ↑,
82', Silva M. ↓, Jailson ↑,
86', Silva L. 🟨,
90', Silva L. ↓, Tiago Andre ↑,
90+6', 0 - 1, Liberal A. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 10 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Académica won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Académica has had a series of home games.

In this match, Académica is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Académica won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 28:19. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Académica won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.5:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Covilhã - the odds 4.23 are the expected chance of winning is 21.59%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Académica Coimbra - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	4:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Académica Coimbra - Os Marialvas	0:1 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
24.08.25	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Académica Coimbra - União de Santarém	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWLLW
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Ovarense - Covilhã	2:3 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Covilhã - Mafra	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	União de Santarém - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
06.04.25	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1
01.03.25	Académica Coimbra - Covilhã	2:1
10.11.24	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	3:4
11.08.24	Académica Coimbra - Covilhã	1:1
07.04.24	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1
10.02.24	Académica Coimbra - Covilhã	0:0
21.01.24	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	3:2

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