Match Info

ICELAND: Division 1 - Round 14

Date: 25 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Varmárvöllur (Mosfellsbaer)


	Afturelding		Keflavík

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3
	1.98	3.7	2.95
	2.04	4	3.06
	1.99	3.94	3.01	Watch
	1.95	3.75	3
	2	3.75	3.03	Watch
	2.02	3.65	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.9)	3.77 ↑ (3.57)	3.01 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Afturelding
45.7%

Draw
24.1%

Keflavík
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

25.6%

42.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

24.8%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Afturelding has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Afturelding's performance.

Keflavík has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Keflavík might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Afturelding than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Afturelding that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keflavík than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Keflavík could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Afturelding - Keflavík Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Afturelding will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Keflavík will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Afturelding: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Andresson J. (G) 16. Barkarson B. B. 25. Bjarnason G. 10. Cogic E. 34. Gudjonsson P. 22. Jensen O. 7. Johannsson A. 8. Jonsson A. 77. Magnusson H. 23. Palsson S. 6. Saevarsson A.	1. Magnusson A. (G) 25. Elvarsson F. 5. Fridriksson S. 3. Johannesson A. 23. Kamel S. 50. Kovtun O. 22. Magnusson A. 6. Magnusson S. 20. Mladen M. 26. Orrason A. 19. Osmani E.
Substitutes
12. Haraldsson B. (G) 19. Hugason S. 1. Johannesson A. (G) 9. Jonasson A. 11. Ragnarsson A. 4. Runolfsson B. 17. Svansson V.	11. Eysteinsson R. 12. Gissurarson R. (G) 21. Hakonarson A. 99. Hakonarson V. 77. Orri Ingimarsson S. (G) 28. Sigfusson K. 14. Stefansson G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', Johannesson A. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Osmani E. ⚽,
16', Cogic E. 🟨,
35', 0 - 2, Mladen M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Osmani E. ↓, Sigfusson K. ↑,
64', Kamel S. ↓, Hakonarson V. ↑,
64', Gudjonsson P. ↓, Jonasson A. ↑,
68', Barkarson B. B. 🟨,
69', Barkarson B. B. ↓, Runolfsson B. ↑,
81', Johannsson A. ↓, Hugason S. ↑,
83', 1 - 2, Bjarnason G. ⚽,
87', Mladen M. ↓, Eysteinsson R. ↑,
87', Elvarsson F. ↓, Stefansson G. ↑,
90', Sigfusson K. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 3, Hakonarson V. ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Afturelding
Icelandic Division 1
18.07.24	Grótta - Afturelding	1:4 ✺
13.07.24	Afturelding - Thor Akureyri	0:3 ✺
04.07.24	IR Reykjavik - Afturelding	3:0 ✺
30.06.24	Njarðvík - Afturelding	2:5 ✺
26.06.24	Afturelding - Fjölnir	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLLWL
- Keflavík
Icelandic Division 1
18.07.24	IR Reykjavik - Keflavík	0:1 ✺
11.07.24	Keflavík - Grótta	2:1 ✺
04.07.24	Fjölnir - Keflavík	0:0 ✺
30.06.24	ÍBV Vestmannaeyar - Keflavík	5:0 ✺
26.06.24	Keflavík - Njarðvík	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Icelandic Division 1
21.05.24	Keflavík - Afturelding	3:0
Icelandic League Cup
02.03.22	Keflavík - Afturelding	5:0
Icelandic Division 1
22.08.20	Afturelding - Keflavík	2:2
19.06.20	Keflavík - Afturelding	5:1
25.07.19	Afturelding - Keflavík	1:0
17.05.19	Keflavík - Afturelding	5:0

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