Match Info

WALES: CYMRU PREMIER - RELEGATION GROUP - ROUND 25

Date: 24 February 2023, Friday

Location: The Airfield (Broughton)

Referee: Livesey A. D. (Eng)


	Airbus UK Broughton		Aberystwyth Town

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.49
	4.25	4.3	1.52
	4.25	4.3	1.52
	4.75	3.9	1.57
	5.4	4.3	1.52
	5.2	4.4	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.81 ↑ (3.18)	4.22 ↑ (3.33)	1.52 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Airbus UK Broughton
18.9%

Draw
21.5%

Aberystwyth Town
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

27.5%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

27.3%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Airbus UK Broughton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Airbus UK Broughton's form might have worsened.

Aberystwyth Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aberystwyth Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Airbus UK Broughton than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Airbus UK Broughton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aberystwyth Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	3.3%	90%

Airbus UK Broughton - Aberystwyth Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Aberystwyth Town will win (27 of 30 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.26% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Airbus UK Broughton won 1.

Airbus UK Broughton is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Aberystwyth Town is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Airbus UK Broughton have a series of guest games.

In this match Aberystwyth Town is a favorite.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Airbus UK Broughton won 9 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 37-35.

Including matches at home between the teams Airbus UK Broughton won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 21-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Airbus UK Broughton
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.02.23	Airbus UK Broughton - Caernarfon Town	0:2 ✺
11.02.23	Pontypridd United - Airbus UK Broughton	4:0 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
04.02.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Airbus UK Broughton	5:0 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
21.01.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Airbus UK Broughton	3:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
14.01.23	Pontardawe Town - Airbus UK Broughton	1:2 pen. ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLW
- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.02.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	3:3 ✺
11.02.23	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	5:0 ✺
21.01.23	Aberystwyth Town - Caernarfon Town	2:1 ✺
10.01.23	Aberystwyth Town - Pen-y-Bont	0:3 ✺
06.01.23	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
27.09.22	Aberystwyth Town - Airbus UK Broughton	2:1
12.08.22	Airbus UK Broughton - Aberystwyth Town	1:2
14.02.20	Aberystwyth Town - Airbus UK Broughton	5:3
02.11.19	Airbus UK Broughton - Aberystwyth Town	1:5
07.09.19	Aberystwyth Town - Airbus UK Broughton	1:2
Welsh League Cup
03.10.17	Aberystwyth Town - Airbus UK Broughton	1:2
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.03.17	Airbus UK Broughton - Aberystwyth Town	4:2

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