Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Round 19

Date: 21 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Park Avenue (Aberystwyth)

Referee: Jones A. (Wal)


	Aberystwyth Town		Caernarfon Town

	1	X	2
	5	4	1.5
	5.2	4.2	1.53
	5.59	4.25	1.51
	5.6	4.21	1.54	Watch
	5	4	1.55
	5.48	4.2	1.51
	5.2	4.2	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.3 ↑ (4.78)	4.15 ↓ (4.2)	1.52 ↓ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aberystwyth Town
17.4%

Draw
22.2%

Caernarfon Town
60.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

22%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

21.6%

59.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aberystwyth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Caernarfon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Aberystwyth Town - Caernarfon Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jones D. (G) 4. Bradford L. 16. Davies B. 5. Ealing F. 7. Evans J. 9. Flint N. 11. Hartley Z. 17. Huxley C. 27. Patterson R. 6. Thorn J. 2. Walsh L.	13. Thomas H. (G) 7. Clarke Z. 9. Davies A. 17. Downey S. 3. Jones M. 11. Lloyd L. 18. Mendes P. 5. Mooney P. 27. Sears R. 10. Thomas D. 4. Williams G.
Substitutes
20. Aziamale C. 22. Dafis G. 28. Darlington A. 14. Davies S. 12. Mason T. 21. Osment S. (G) 19. Torry D.	39. Ellis O. 21. Faux J. 33. Williams C. 61. Williams J. 37. Xie W.
Coaches
Corbisiero A.	Davies R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', Huxley C. 🟨,
45', Walsh L. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 0, Flint N. ⚽,
45+5', Bradford L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
72', 2 - 0, Evans J. ⚽,
74', Williams G. ↓, Faux J. ↑,
84', Hartley Z. 🟨,
85', 2 - 1, Lloyd L. ⚽,
86', 3 - 1, Evans J. ⚽,
88', Huxley C. ↓, Torry D. ↑,
90+1', Mooney P. 🟨,
90+7', Downey S. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Aberystwyth is Cymru Premier (Relegation Group )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Caernarfon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Caernarfon is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Aberystwyth won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 24:28 (average 1.6:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Aberystwyth won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:13 (average 1.4:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
04.12.24	Flint Town United - Aberystwyth Town	3:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
30.11.24	Aberystwyth Town - Cardiff City U21	2:1 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
23.11.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Aberystwyth Town	3:0 ✺
08.11.24	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	3:1 ✺
02.11.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Aberystwyth Town	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 LWLWL
- Caernarfon Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
14.12.24	Caernarfon Town - Barry Town United	3:2 ✺
03.12.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
09.11.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Caernarfon Town	0:1 ✺
02.11.24	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:5 ✺
26.10.24	Haverfordwest County - Caernarfon Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
15.10.24	Caernarfon Town - Aberystwyth Town	1:4
17.10.23	Caernarfon Town - Aberystwyth Town	3:0
09.09.23	Aberystwyth Town - Caernarfon Town	2:4
22.04.23	Aberystwyth Town - Caernarfon Town	3:2
17.03.23	Caernarfon Town - Aberystwyth Town	0:1
21.01.23	Aberystwyth Town - Caernarfon Town	2:1
21.10.22	Caernarfon Town - Aberystwyth Town	2:1

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