Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Koblandy Batyr Stadium (Aktobe)

Referee: Torres I. (Lux)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Aktobe		Sarajevo

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	4.33	Watch
	1.7	3.5	4.5
	1.7	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.69	3.85	5.2
	1.71	3.7	4.75	Watch
	1.65	3.6	4.6
	1.71	3.72	4.74	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.96)	3.63 ↑ (3.43)	4.67 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
54.6%

Draw
25.5%

Sarajevo
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

26.8%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

25.9%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aktobe's performance.

Sarajevo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sarajevo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aktobe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarajevo than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sarajevo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.2%	6.9%	6.9%

Aktobe - Sarajevo Predictions

Users Predictions: Aktobe will win (25 of 29 users predict this - 86.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.66% – 98.76%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Shatskiy I. (G) 15. Kiki G. 44. Barac M. 4. Agbo U. 3. Bessmertnyi D. 88. Vatajelu B. 12. Doumbouya A. 16. Cevallos J. 5. Strumia L. (C) 10. Samorodov M. 17. Romero D.	42. Rockov E. (G) 33. Celik N. 44. Djurickovic M. (C) 16. Jovic F. 24. Soldo V. 22. Beganovic A. 29. Bubanja V. 10. Mustafic M. 14. Djordjevic A. 7. Catakovic H. 11. Kyeremeh F.
Substitutes
7. Baytana B. 18. Jairo J. 6. Kasym A. 80. Kenesov A. 31. Tanzharikov A. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 11. Umaev I. 57. Umaniyazov M.	26. Alajmovic E. 32. Andjusic N. 3. Durakovic E. 17. Guliashvili G. 27. Hamzic M. 18. Julardzija E. 5. Matanovic M. 8. Mehmedovic E. 4. Mujkic I. 19. Ristic A. 39. Rogic L. (G) 28. Unusic B.
Coaches
Parfenov D.	Zekic Z.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Mustafic M. 🟨,
26', Mustafic M. ↓, Andjusic N. ↑,
30', Andjusic N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Soldo V. 🟨,
61', Doumbouya A. ↓, Umaev I. ↑,
65', Bessmertnyi D. 🟨,
71', Bessmertnyi D. ↓, Tanzharikov A. ↑,
71', Cevallos J. ↓, Baytana B. ↑,
75', Bubanja V. ↓, Guliashvili G. ↑,
78', Beganovic A. 🟨,
80', Tanzharikov A. 🟨,
85', Samorodov M. ↓, Jairo J. ↑,
85', Agbo U. ↓, Kenesov A. ↑,
87', Andjusic N. ↓, Julardzija E. ↑,
87', Catakovic H. ↓, Mehmedovic E. ↑,
90', 0 - 1, Kyeremeh F. ⚽, Mehmedovic E. (A),
90+1', Kyeremeh F. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Aktobe is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Sarajevo is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aktobe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Sarajevo have a series of guest games.

In this match Aktobe is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
Kazakh League Cup
06.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.07.24	Aktobe - Spartak Moscow	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
30.06.24	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	3:4 ✺
23.06.24	Aktobe - Shakhter Karagandy	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
19.06.24	Yelimay Semey - Aktobe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLWL
- FK Sarajevo
Club Friendly
03.07.24	Olimpija Ljubljana - Sarajevo	1:0 ✺
29.06.24	Shakhtar Donetsk - Sarajevo	4:1 ✺
28.06.24	UTA Arad - Sarajevo	1:3 ✺
Bosnian Premier League
26.05.24	Široki Brijeg - Sarajevo	2:2 ✺
20.05.24	Sarajevo - Posušje	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LLWTT

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